Right down to the wire

Anant Gaundalkar

Thanks to a defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka at the Wankhede Stadium in Bombay on Saturday, the league phase of the Independence Cup has received an artificial dose of excitement, with the two remaining league matches having been turned into virtual semifinals, wherein the winners will go through to the best-of-three final.

This does away with the whole question of run rates - unless, of course, either match is abandoned for any reason. And one reason that seems very unlikely is the weather - there is no possibility of rain in either Hyderabad or Madras in the near future.

Even if the game is abandoned, Pakistan will proceed into the final because as things stand, it has a run rate of +0.08. India, which was at the top with +0.80 after the win against New Zealand, slumped to - 0.12 following the defeat to Sri Lanka on Saturday, and therefore the only way the home team can make it to the final is by defeating Pakistan.

Over the years since its ODI debut in 1974, India has appeared in 37 different limited over competitions comprising three or more countries (including the ongoing Independence Cup). Of these, four tournaments were played purely on a league basis, the winner decided by points alone. Of the remaining 33 occasions, India reached the knockout stage 23 times - and here again, there are seven instances when India made it to the knock out phase by winning their final league game, in a do-or-die situation.

The first occasion was way back in 1985-'86, when India pipped New Zealand in the World Series Cup by 21 runs to make the grade. The next was in Dhaka, when India beat Pakistan in the last league game of the 1988-1989 Asia Cup to squeak through. The other five instances were all in his decade - 1991-1992 World Series Cup in Australia when India defeated the West Indies, the 1994-1995 Singer World Series when India defeated Australia in Colombo, the 1994-1995 Pepsi Asia Cup when India defeated Sri Lanka at Sharjah, the 1996-1997 Titan Cup when India defeated Australia at Mohali and the 1996-1997 Standard Bank Series when India beat Zimbabwe at Benoni in the final league game.

Equally interestingly, while the man of the match at Mohali against Australia was the rusticated Mohammad Azharuddin, the other four games saw the same Indian player ensuring the win in the crucial game, and getting the man of the match award. And that player, predictably enough, is Sachin Tendulkar - against the West Indies at Melbourne, against Australia at Colombo, against Sri Lanka at Sharjah and against Zimbabwe at Benoni.

Little wonder then that both Pakistan captain Rameez Raja, and coach Mushtaq Mohammad, shrugged off the heat and the crowd support as factors to contend with in the upcoming showdown at the M A Chidambaram Stadium in Madras on May 21. "The real problem, and the key to the game, is Sachin Tendulkar," said Raja, adding that he and coach Mushtaq were working out strategies to nullify a possible Tendulkar blitz at the beginning of the innings.

"We expect the crowds to be four square behind India, so that is not a factor anyway," added the Pakistan captain.

Raja is somewhat peeved because his team was not given permission to play a practise game under lights on Monday. A request to this effect was turned down by the Tamil Nadu Cricket Association on the ground that various problems, including security for the players, could not be overcome in the limited time available.

"We haven't worked out our final gameplan," the Pakistan skipper admitted, "but we believe the key is to contain India in the first 15 overs. That is our weakest link, we need to plan that phase of our bowling better. But we have the advantage that we know the Indian team, its strengths and weaknesses, very well, a lot of us have played them regularly last year."

And so it seemingly boils down to one question - can Tendulkar, yet again as he has so often in the recent past, repeat his heroics in a do-or-die situation?