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Mental state will be the key

The weather forecast is fine and the Indian team unchanged. The home side go into this vital match in good heart, one up in the series, and now with all guns firing. The humiliation of the opening day at Mohali is forgotten and Sachin is again the hero. His top order batsmen are in fine fettle and the only chinks I can see are a certain pause in the production of that immaculate batsman Dravid, and the lack of variation of the left-arm spinner Joshi. Maybe, my perceptions are merely wishful thinking?

For Dravid can be supported by his captain and the others, if indeed he has any momentary doubts. They spring from his long and unfruitful spell at the crease during the throttling of the Indian first innings by the nagging New Zealand bowlers. His rapid demise in the second innings may have added to his mental state. For mental state is now the key to this match and India have the edge.

Can the Kiwis lift their performance? I believe they can and that there will be a splendid contest as a result. I base my predictions on the resilience of the Black Caps and their leadership. The coach David Trist may not have Test experience but he is battle hardened from his world wanderings and workings in cricket. He is not known to give in easily, and alongside him is a manager who I have known is a battler, for I have known him all my life. He is my brother. So, of course, I am biased, but no one wearing the silver fern has batted with more commitment and courage than Jeff. If these two can convey to Fleming and his lads the necessary mindset that brings out their best then New Zealand will be fully competitive. This is not a weakling outfit that depends on luck or other factors to be effective.

I am amused by the contention in some Indian media that I cannot claim higher ground on the issue of umpiring decisions because of what has happened in New Zealand in the past. I have never claimed that our umpires are superior to any others and I have received 9 LBW’s in New Zealand to remind me. Those in New Zealand know me to be very critical at times of our own umpires. There is little point in pursuing this issue. The players know that the breaks even out and they are determined to strut their skills.

New Zealand's prospects are diminished without the plucky batsman McMillan, of course, and the arrival of replacement Gary Stead can only be greeted with hope rather than expectation. It is unfair to expect too much there and therefore he should not play. The key is for the openers, I expect Horne and Spearman, to establish a platform that will build a substantial total. With this combination NZ should look for solidity from Horne and some controlled aggression from Spearman. Horne hasn’t looked comfortable yet but he’s a proven fighter and will benefit if there is some scoring momentum coming from the other end.

I would like to see Parore at first drop for he has the technique, the experience and the pluck to perform. Astle is too good a player to consistently fail and has shown enough form to produce the big one of which he is capable. Someone in the top five must register three figures or more if New Zealand are to even think of squaring the series.

The Indians feel they have our bowling tamed now but they may underestimate the persistence of Cairns, Nash and Astle and the burgeoning skills of the young Vettori. I believe it is time for Harris (in for Bell) to support them in another frustrating role, a part he can play to perfection.

I greet the third Test with relish. India has not seen the best of the Kiwis yet.

(Gameplan)

Martin Crowe