Federal front on cards in TN

With the ouster of S Thirunavukkarasu from the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, hopes have arisen for a 'federal front' forming in Tamil Nadu, bringing together various political groups under a single umbrella to negotiate with the three major parties during the upcoming elections.

"Thirunavukkarasu could be the focus of such a move now," admitted a former minister in the M G Ramachandran government. "But that does not necessarily mean that he will head such an arrangement. Like the United Front chose I K Gujral as prime minister, we will have to opt for a non-controversial person with a small support base for the job of a co-ordinator," he said.

Such a federal front would command a substantial 20 per cent or more of the vote bank and thus enable it negotiate with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Tamil Maanila Congress, and even the AIADMK at times of crisis.

The leader pointed out that the Janaki Ramachandran faction of the AIADMK had polled nearly 10 per cent of the votes in the 1989 assembly election. The mainline party had polled 22 per cent in 1989 but did better in 1991 when the Janaki Ramachandran faction merged with the AIADMK. In 1996, that 10 per cent went to the DMK and the TMC, the leader said. Add 5.5 per cent each polled by the Congress and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in 1996, the average three per cent of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the four per cent votebank of the Pattali Makkal Katchi. That works to between 20-25 per cent overall, a big enough number to influence state politics, the leader said.

The MDMK is mostly concentrated in the southern districts, and to a lesser extent, in the western districts. Likewise, the PMK has its traditional strongholds in the northern districts. The MGR Front of the Janaki faction shares its base in the central districts with Thirunavukkarasu. "Hence, there will not be any inter-group interest clashes, and each party can grow on its own and also contribute to the whole," the minister said.

Though those sponsoring the idea did not identify any prospective poll ally, the TMC appears the natural choice since the PMK already has had problems sharing seats sharing with the DMK, which also has a strong base in the northern districts. Though the MDMK has come to a near-final poll alliance with the AIADMK, the two may run into similar trouble in the southern districts.

But since the TMC is well spread over the state without a stronghold anywhere to demand too much, it should be acceptable to most sections, the leader said.

The TMC will also have trouble sharing seats with the DMK for the next polls since it might not be satisfied with the 40 Assembly seats it accepted in 1996. Besides, the TMC is unhappy that the DMK did not back it sufficiently when party chief G K Moopanar was a candidate for prime ministership.

But the plan for the federal front has its problems. Already, the MDMK has moved closer to the AIADMK, making things uncomfortable to parties averse to Jayalalitha.

Likewise, the PMK keeps vacillating on its deal with the DMK and the CPI-M does not like to deal with the Congress.

Even more important, such a combination could be riven by ego clashes among the leaders of various groups.

"The situation has not changed a wee bit since," says an AIADMK faction leader. "If anything, you also have the official AIADMK rebels made up by old colleagues of Jayalaltiha, each a faction in himself. But their past, if anything, can only work against a future combination," he said.