Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar
There is no choice for national parties but confront the Era of Coalitions
That message can be taken to the people only by the nationals.
So far, all 11 general elections
have been fought by the nationals between themselves, with the regionals
being, for the most part, voices off. From now, the fight will have
to be between not nationals, but alliances.
Bengal, as usual, has shown the way. "What Bengal thinks
today, India thinks tomorrow!" A Communist-led coalition there
has set an example. It has
done so by basing its coalition on one-party dominance.
In Kerala,
even though it is two sets of alliances which compete for power,
both are under one-party dominances.
In Tamil Nadu, the concept of dominance has
been so much part of everyone's electoral
strategy that, for close on three decades, elections have been
fought between alliances. And the alliances have been based on
reciprocity of dominance in the state and Centre, respectively.
In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena-BJP combine presents a similar profile.
Nowhere in the states have we seen the hitherto typical central
model -- of minority coalitions supported by an outside majority
-- last for any length of time.
With this in mind,
it would be best if post-election coalitions were forged in advance
as pre-election alliances. That way, the electorate would be presented
a clear choice. The present experience of fractured verdicts is
the consequence of different sets of voters being offered different sets of choices -- and not of any inability on the part of the Indian
voter to choose.
The outcome is fractured because
the choice is fractured. The fault lies with atomistic parties,
not atomistic voters.
Neither Deve Gowda, nor the cobbled-together regionals he
'led', nor the CPI-M, nor, indeed, even the Congress has quite
understood this. Even the tail which has been wagging the dog
did not grow from the dog. It was fixed to the dog from outside.
And now, the tail has simplydropped off.
Thus, there is no choice for the nationals but confront the Era of Coalitions. Not as they had hitherto -- by covering
their eyes from reality, treating the regionals as their
surrogates and encouraging the regionals to rise above their station -- but by squaring themselves to their responsibilities.
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That means, as far as
the Communists are concerned, recognising the BJP cannot
be stalled except in concert with the Congress. It also means
the Congress recognising the need to act in concert with
either the Communists or a group of regionals to thwart
the saffrons.
And the regionals have to recognise that coalition government
does not mean rule by the regionals at the Centre, but sharing
power as junior partners to one or the other nationals. This means the regionals will have to learn that they can find a niche for themselves
at the Centre only by restricting the UF doctrine of untouchability
to either the Congress or the BJP, not both.
The BJP, for
its part, will have to learn that its only hope of carrying the
Sangh Parivar to the gaddi is by keeping the Congress/Communists
divided. For, so long as there is a measure of understanding
between the two, the door to power will be firmly shut for them.
But if untouchability within the
secular forces continues, the 21st century is in danger from a saffron wave.
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