Commentary/Mani Shankar Aiyar

There is no choice for national parties but confront the Era of Coalitions

That message can be taken to the people only by the nationals.

So far, all 11 general elections have been fought by the nationals between themselves, with the regionals being, for the most part, voices off. From now, the fight will have to be between not nationals, but alliances.

Bengal, as usual, has shown the way. "What Bengal thinks today, India thinks tomorrow!" A Communist-led coalition there has set an example. It has done so by basing its coalition on one-party dominance.

In Kerala, even though it is two sets of alliances which compete for power, both are under one-party dominances.

In Tamil Nadu, the concept of dominance has been so much part of everyone's electoral strategy that, for close on three decades, elections have been fought between alliances. And the alliances have been based on reciprocity of dominance in the state and Centre, respectively.

In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena-BJP combine presents a similar profile. Nowhere in the states have we seen the hitherto typical central model -- of minority coalitions supported by an outside majority -- last for any length of time.

With this in mind, it would be best if post-election coalitions were forged in advance as pre-election alliances. That way, the electorate would be presented a clear choice. The present experience of fractured verdicts is the consequence of different sets of voters being offered different sets of choices -- and not of any inability on the part of the Indian voter to choose.

The outcome is fractured because the choice is fractured. The fault lies with atomistic parties, not atomistic voters.

Neither Deve Gowda, nor the cobbled-together regionals he 'led', nor the CPI-M, nor, indeed, even the Congress has quite understood this. Even the tail which has been wagging the dog did not grow from the dog. It was fixed to the dog from outside. And now, the tail has simplydropped off.

Thus, there is no choice for the nationals but confront the Era of Coalitions. Not as they had hitherto -- by covering their eyes from reality, treating the regionals as their surrogates and encouraging the regionals to rise above their station -- but by squaring themselves to their responsibilities.

< That means, as far as the Communists are concerned, recognising the BJP cannot be stalled except in concert with the Congress. It also means the Congress recognising the need to act in concert with either the Communists or a group of regionals to thwart the saffrons.

And the regionals have to recognise that coalition government does not mean rule by the regionals at the Centre, but sharing power as junior partners to one or the other nationals. This means the regionals will have to learn that they can find a niche for themselves at the Centre only by restricting the UF doctrine of untouchability to either the Congress or the BJP, not both.

The BJP, for its part, will have to learn that its only hope of carrying the Sangh Parivar to the gaddi is by keeping the Congress/Communists divided. For, so long as there is a measure of understanding between the two, the door to power will be firmly shut for them.

But if untouchability within the secular forces continues, the 21st century is in danger from a saffron wave.

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