End of a dynasty

For the first time the people of Kashmir are experiencing the thrill of a ruling party -- that too one so deeply entrenched as the National Conference -- falling from popular grace through a democratic process.

The National Conference's humiliating defeat, marked by selective punishment to members of the Abdullah dynasty -- Omar Abdullah and Mustafa Kamal -- is an unprecedented phenomenon in Kashmir's political history. About a dozen governments have come and gone since Independence, but never through an election.

Omar Abdullah's rout in the dynasty's traditional seat, Ganderbal, and that of his uncle Mustafa Kamal in the Tangmarg constituency where the family owns most of its real estate marks the end of an era in the politics of this border state.

That Kashmiris who allowed the patriarch of the humbled dynasty, Sheikh Abdullah, to rule their hearts and minds for over five decades should have fallen for the family's bete noir, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, only adds insult to the injury.

The Mufti's fledgling People's Democratic Party has effectively emerged as an alternative to the National Conference in the Kashmir valley which has remained Sheikh Abdullah family's stronghold since the 1930s. That this transformation took place in a short span of three years only proves that the National Conference under Farooq Abdullah's leadership had become a hollow entity, bereft of popular strength. Sheikh Abdullah also suffered fluctuations in his popularity, but never a loss of credibility.

Farooq, the Sheikh's successor since 1982, has suffered an irreversible loss of credibility. He is not known for extraordinary qualities of leadership which are required to put the National Conference back on the pedestal. Omar is too young and too inexperienced to do that. Mustafa Kamal was never considered front-ranking leadership material.

The Mufti, the butt of criticism for 'inconsistencies' -- having changed parties from the Congress to the Janata Dal, back to the Congress and then from the Congress to the PDP -- has but one consistency to his credit --that of being an inveterate opponent of the Abdullah dynasty. Ironically, that is what paid him dividends in this election. He became the 'natural choice' of voters who were looking for an alternative entity to overthrow the dynasty.

Mufti's gritty daughter Mehbooba Mufti has emerged as the real 'giant killer,' not merely because of outwitting Omar and Farooq Abdullah who worked overtime to deny her victory from Pahalgam but also because it was largely due to her sustained effort that Omar was defeated in Ganderbal, a constituency which had returned members of the Abdullah dynasty since 1977. That an undercurrent with an anti-National Conference edge was sweeping the Kashmir election scene was obvious. Had it not been for Mehbooba's immense popularity it could not have been encashed by her father because of his inconvenient political baggage.

That the National Conference is down and out is beyond doubt. What next?

The most probable scenario is that the Congress and PDP will join hands and enlist support from some Independents to cobble up a coalition. Kashmir has never had a hung assembly before. A shortlived coalition in the past, with Sheikh Abdullah and the Congress sharing power from 1975 to 1977, was essentially not born out of any electoral choice but contrived as a political arrangement.

I have spoken to the Mufti as well as state Congress president Ghulam Nabi Azad. They seem to be confident of working out a viable arrangement to replace the Farooq-led National Conference government. To his credit, Azad has proved his mettle this time. When Sonia Gandhi made him Pradesh Congress Committee chief and he reluctantly came over to take the reins of a dilapidated Congress edifice many thought he had been dumped. I have always believed that Azad is among the lucky ones in India's politics. And he has proved me right. I told him that and he gracefully acknowledged the fact.

That apart, Azad's leadership has infused a new life in the Congress. Its success in Jammu against both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the National Conference is undoubtedly a great achievement. But still greater in terms of political significance in the local context are the Congress victories in Kashmir. It has more qualitative value and Azad is understandably happy about it.

Interestingly, both the Mufti and the Congress party -- which he headed in the state for 16 long years from 1975 to 1986 and whose rank and file still has a soft corner for him for having nurtured the party against the onslaught of a merciless Sheikh Abdullah -- were sought to be projected by the National Conference as the 'enemy number one' of the Kashmiri people. The Sheikh, Farooq and Omar concentrated their energies in making the Mufti a hate figure in Kashmiri politics. That the voters saw him as a lesser evil than the Abdullah dynasty indicates the depth of estrangement with the dynasty, marks the end of an era and the beginning of a new one.

Kashmir will not be the same again. It was unthinkable that a ruling party would be 'allowed' to lose an election, and still more difficult to imagine that the stars of Kashmir's first political family would be made to bite the dust.

Mohammad Sayeed Malik

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