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Political instability, Maoists haunt Nepal

A year after the massacre of the Nepalese royal family, confusion and uncertainty loom large in this tiny South Asian nation sandwiched between China and India.

The continuing infighting within the ruling Nepali Congress, which seems headed for a split, appears to have motivated the Maoist rebels, who have been waging a vicious "people's war" since 1996 to overthrow the monarchy and establish a republican state.

Political analysts in Kathmandu warn that the Maoists could take advantage of the critical situation and push their war to a new level.

And they made an attempt to do just that on Wednesday, June 12, by launching a late night attack against security forces patrolling the northern parts of western Salyan district. This was the first major strike by the Maoists after they faced humiliating routs in western Rukum and Rolpa districts last month.

J Pandey, a journalist in the western regional town of Nepalgunj, quoted military sources as saying that dozens of rebels were killed when the security forces repulsed the attack. Five Royal Nepalese Army soldiers were also killed in the exchange that continued for hours, he said.

"Things are not yet clear, but security officials here claim that the Maoists could have suffered the biggest loss ever during the overnight exchange of fire," he told Kantipur FM Radio on Thursday.

"The rebels also attacked an army helicopter that launched aerial raids, but it is safe," he added.

A former Maoist commander in Kathmandu, too, warned that the critical situation could inspire the Maoists to launch a "decisive war".

"Having suffered a series of routs -- the most recent being in Khara in western Rukum district, where around 200 of their comrades were killed -- the rebels need a big push," he said, adding, "and this attack could be just one in the series."

According to the latest figures made available by the government, over 4,200 Nepalese have lost their lives in the six-year-old conflict; more than half of them after the imposition of emergency last November 26.

The impoverished nation has also witnessed its infrastructure like power plants, drinking water facilities and bridges damaged by the rebels.

But King Gyanendra instilled some hope among his frustrated subjects on June 4 when he announced in a widely-publicised interview that he would back a multi-party democracy, the present constitution and, most importantly, the general elections that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has called on November 13. The King was speaking on the first anniversary of his accession to the Shah-dynasty throne.

"Nepalese I have met have told me that those responsible for making democracy flourish are not playing the role they should be. And until that happens, the benefits of democracy cannot bring peace and security to the citizens," he told state-owned Nepal Television.

Expressing concern over the violence, the King also cautioned the politicians and people at large, specifically "those who cannot deliver [results]", that they should not blame the system. But "If all sides are committed to the well-being of the nation and the people, we believe a solution can emerge from an approach compatible with the constitution."

When asked about the elections, he said, "Why look at elections negatively? I feel the government, political parties, different classes of society, have to look at it as a positive thing and prepare for free elections on the specified dates."

The elections are being held two years before the regular five-yearly schedule. The 205 members of the just-dissolved House of Representatives were elected in May 1999. But as the Election Commission goes ahead with the preparations, there are lingering doubts that the polls might not be smooth due to the insurgency that has affected at least 25 of the country's 75 districts, most of them in the hilly and mountainous regions in the west and east.

"Holding elections in the western districts of Rolpa and Rukum, where Maoists continue to rule the villages, is not an easy task," said Arjun Bhandari, a journalist who recently visited Maoist hinterlands in Rolpa and Dang. "The government will have to hold the polls in more than two phases." In 1999, the general elections were held in two phases.

The crisis in the Nepali Congress deepened after King Gyanendra dissolved parliament in May and called for elections on the recommendation of Deuba. Three days later, party president Girija Prasad Koirala expelled Deuba from the party.

Shortly afterwards, in the first week of June, he embarked on a sudden goodwill visit to China where he is said to have garnered Beijing's support in Nepal's fight against the insurgents. And on his way back from Hong Kong, he made a sudden surprise detour to New Delhi.

Newspapers in Nepal quoted sources in New Delhi as saying that apart from Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Koirala met senior Maoist leaders at the behest of Defence Minister George Fernandes. These reports of Fernandes emerging as a self-appointed mediator between Koirala and the Maoists leaders living in India have raised the hackles of many in Nepal.

Meanwhile, international efforts to help Kathmandu overcome the crisis continue. The British embassy in Kathmandu announced on June 13 that it will host an international meeting on Nepal from June 19-20. This will bring together representatives from Nepal, a number of regional and extra-regional governments and international donor agencies, who will discuss how international partners can coordinate assistance to Nepal.

Efforts are also on to prevent Nepal's largest and oldest political party from splitting. Former prime minister and Koirala's contemporary in the party Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, whose health has deteriorated lately, has appealed Koirala to hold a central committee meeting and sort out things. On his part, Koirala has agreed to pave the way for reconciliation.

But whatever the developments within the Nepali Congress and on the international front, many Nepalese say the most comforting remarks came from the King, who said in his interview that "the continuity of the institution of monarchy rests on the faith, trust and respect of the Nepali people... I want to tell the Nepali people: Live as Nepalis, be proud to be Nepalis. Let us learn to work for our nation and for its good".

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