NEWSLINKS
US EDITION
COLUMNISTS
DIARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
THE STATES
ELECTIONS
ARCHIVES
SEARCH REDIFF

Search the Internet          Tips

Recent Columns

Challenges in the       Persian Gulf Economic challenges to      Indian diplomacy The return of Khaleda      Zia Emerging trends in the      American war Light at the end      of the tunnel

The road to Kabul

Just a few days before he died in a mysterious air crash General Zia-ul Haq gave his last interview to a European journalist. The general looked relaxed and pleased with himself and spoke triumphantly about how the jihad he had supported and sustained in Afghanistan against Soviet forces was on the verge of succeeding. The inquisitive journalist asked him how Pakistan hoped to benefit from the impending Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. Drawing her attention to a map of Pakistan's neighbourhood General Zia placed the palm of his hand over the territories of Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbors and proudly proclaimed: "Soon all these (territories) will be ours."

The good general actually believed that his advocacy of militant Islam to deal with the Soviet infidels would actually lead to a situation wherein Afghanistan and its neighbours would come under Pakistani tutelage. It is precisely such thinking that prompted General Zia's successors and protégés to believe that Pakistan would achieve immense 'strategic depth' and control the outlets of the huge energy resources of Central Asia by supporting the fanatic Taliban militarily and diplomatically. General Zia's dreams lie shattered today, with the entire international community led by the United States joining hands to oust the Taliban and scatter its friends from Al Qaeda.

It is important to bear these Pakistani ambitions and illusions in mind in analysing the situation in Afghanistan today. While the world community can draw immense satisfaction by the success it has achieved thus far in bringing a measure of peace and stability in Afghanistan, it is only in Pakistan that one hears voices that the Pashtun community has not been adequately represented in the power structure in Kabul. The aim is obviously to keep the pot boiling in Afghanistan by promoting Pashtun discontent. Pakistan is also keen to see that the warlords controlling bordering cities in Afghanistan like Kandahar and Jalalabad are its protégés. This will enable the ISI to continue its links with those involved in narcotics smuggling and also give Pakistan leverage in manipulating developments in Kabul.

The assassination of Haji Qadir on July 6 in Kabul has to be seen in the light of these Pakistani ambitions. Haji Qadir had just been appointed as vice-president to head the important ministry of works that would have given him access to huge funds provided by the international community for reconstruction, when he was assassinated. He wielded enormous political clout amongst his Pashtun following. Qadir was no admirer of Pakistan and believed that his brother Abdul Haq had been betrayed by the ISI and thereafter captured and killed by the Taliban. He was a close associate of Defence Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim whom the Pakistanis abhor. While there have been allegations of Qadir dealing in drugs, there are strong reasons to conclude that his assassination was executed by gunmen hired by rival warlord Haji Zaman, who had taken refuge in Pakistan, after Qadir turned the heat on Zaman for the role the latter was alleged to have played in an attempt to assassinate Fahim.

Iran directly accused the ISI of involvement in Qadir's assassination. Qadir was the most influential Pashtun leader allied to the Northern Alliance. His close association with the Northern Alliance and his prominent role in the Karzai government deprived Pakistan of its ability to assert that the Karzai dispensation did not have adequate Pashtun representation. The Pakistanis were also miffed by the fact that their favourite Pashtun from the Zahir Shah faction in the Loya Jirga, former finance minister Hedayat Amin Arsala had been stripped of his important finance portfolio.

Assisted actively by the international community, Hamid Karzai has tried his best to secure a reasonable ethnic balance in his Cabinet. The powerful Tajik leader Yunus Qanooni was persuaded to relinquish charge of the powerful interior ministry to make way for a Pashtun -- Taj Mohammad Wardak. The Shia Hazara leader Karim Khalili became a vice-president. But important and influential warlords like Rashid Dostum in Mazar-e-Sharif, Gul Agha Sherzai in Kandahar and Ismail Khan in Herat preferred to be de facto masters of their own fiefdoms than occupy a cabinet berth in Kabul.

Thus, while the Karzai government will continue to be confronted by challenges in Kabul, it will have to coexist with regional warlords as it proceeds to govern the country. But with over $4.8 billion pledged by the international community as relief and reconstruction assistance, Karzai will continue to wield considerable power by his control of the purse strings. While it is only natural for any Afghan leader to seek good neighbourly relations with Iran, Pakistan and the Central Asian states the power structure in Kabul is such that Pakistan can no longer expect Afghanistan to be a de facto colony as it was during the Taliban rule.

In these circumstances, India has done well to avoid giving any impression that it seeks to interfere in Afghanistan's internal affairs. New Delhi's predominant focus has been on economic and reconstruction assistance. Pakistan has refused to permit the transshipment of one million tons Indian wheat to Afghanistan through its territory. This is a problem that we will continuously face in our trade and economic ties with Afghanistan. We need to work closely with Iran to develop alternate routes for access to Afghanistan. The supply of Tata buses has enabled the reopening of bus services in Afghanistan. India has also assisted extensively on technical training facilities for Afghanistan and in the areas ranging from law and order to information technology. The one million tons of wheat pledged by us will be provided to Afghanistan as biscuits through the world food programme.

Most, importantly Indian doctors are not only assisting in running the recently reopened Indira Gandhi hospital in Kabul, but also in providing rehabilitation to those who tread on landmines, by provision of the Jaipur foot. Hundreds of thousands of unfortunate Afghans have lost their feet because of treading on landmines across the country. It is imperative for us to expand and accelerate the effort to provide relief to these handicapped Afghans.

It would not be desirable to allow any external power to acquire overwhelming or predominant influence in Afghanistan. Afghanistan needs many friends today. There are unfortunately signs of suspicions in American minds about Iran's role in Afghanistan. These need to be addressed, especially as Pakistan has a vested interest in discrediting Iran in western eyes, as it sees Iran as a rival for influence. But the fact is that Iran has a natural interest in seeing that it has a friendly and cooperative relationship with Afghanistan. Iranian diplomats played a very constructive role both in Bonn and later during the Loya Jirga. Iran has a natural interest in seeing that unfriendly forces do not gain control of areas adjacent to its borders in Afghanistan. There is satisfaction in Tehran about the results of the Loya Jirga and the prominence now given to Shia leaders in the Kabul hierarchy.

While India has worked closely with the United States in recent days on developments in Afghanistan, there is need for much greater interaction on this score with Russia and Iran. This is true not only on issues pertaining to Afghanistan, but also on the entire question of transnational gas pipelines. There are therefore, going to be a number of challenges that New Delhi will face in coming months as it fashions its approach to events in Afghanistan and Central Asia. These need to be imaginatively addressed.

G Parthasarathy