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November 21, 2001
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T V R Shenoy
Myth vs reality
Three weeks ago, when I came to the United States, media pundits were declaring the sustained American bombing of Afghanistan a complete failure. Today, the same news organisations are stating that the war is as good as over and that the myth of the Taleban's fighting prowess has been smashed for good. I disagree with both assessments. Which is why I propose to spend the rest of this column setting some facts straight.
Myth One: The Afghan is an unbeatable warrior who has ground down every empire that dared invade his territory.
The fact: The Afghans were beaten on every occasion when they tried to fight a conventional war, army to army, on Afghan soil. That has been true from Cyrus the Achaemenid in the sixth century BC down to Maharaja Ranjit Singh a little over a century and a half ago. The Afghans have enjoyed some little success only when they fought a guerrilla war -- to a limited extent against Britain, and more so against the Russians.
Myth Two: The Afghan's xenophobia will override his distaste for the Taleban, and everyone will unite against the Americans.
The fact: The unhappiest faces after the Northern Alliance returned to Kabul were to be found in Pakistan! The citizens of that unhappy city celebrated promptly -- shaving off their beards, playing music and watching Indian films, gawking as women returned to public life...
Kabul's population is more ethnically diverse than that of any other place in Afghanistan, but I believe Pushtoons form a large chunk of the population. We can safely assume the city's joy indicates that not all Pushtoons are Taleban fans!
Myth Three: The war is over, now that Kabul has fallen and Kandahar is under siege.
The fact: Kabul did not "fall" to anyone; the Taleban vacated it in good order. Wars are not won by retreat, but they are not lost either as long as your enemy has his men and his weapons intact.
How many fighters do the Taleban and Al Qaeda possess? Well, the numbers differ depending on which intelligence service you speak to -- anywhere between 30,000 and 60,000 men forming the fanatic core. Everyone agrees that the two groups have suffered barely 900 casualties. That leaves a sizeable number of men still out there. And there is little evidence that their arms have been destroyed; their Stinger missiles, to name but one, are still thought to be in excellent working order.
There are several options still open to the Taleban and Al Qaeda. Such as:
- Individual members can melt back into their own Pushtoon tribes. There is considerable resentment at American sponsorship of the Uzbek-Tajik-Hazara Northern Alliance among the Pushtoons (roughly 40 per cent of Afghanistan). The Pushtoon clan chiefs may not like the Taleban -- which cut across tribal lines -- but they dislike "foreigners" even more. And once Taleban members are back with their families, it will be next to impossible to hunt them out.
- Some of the Taleban can seek refuge across the border, in Pakistan. Iran has already reported that Osama bin Laden himself has done just that. Once on Pakistani soil, they are automatically shielded from American bombs.
- Several soldiers can cross into India and/or China, crossing Pakistan with a wink and a nod from Islamabad. I understand the commanders of the XIV, XV and XVI Corps have already put their forces on alert. (These three forces are in Jammu & Kashmir.) The Chinese are less forthcoming about these matters, but it wouldn't have escaped Beijing's attention that those killed fighting for the Taleban included forty or fifty Chinese citizens from Xinjiang.
I cannot help wondering if this third possibility is not the most likely. Why is the Taleban fighting so desperately for Konduz when it was willing to retreat from Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul? Is it because Konduz (and Jalalabad) guard the routes for the southern forces to escape north to prepared shelters? Could Konduz be the Dunkirk of the Afghan War?
(Actually, I suspect the Taleban never trusted the cities too highly. They always appeared to have the peasant's ingrained suspicion of the urban elite. And the Taleban warlord, Mullah Omar, might have been speaking the unvarnished truth when he vowed to take the war "to the deserts and the mountains". Was he referring to the mighty Hindu Kush and Pamir peaks in the north?)
Myth Four: The war will end with the capture or death of Osama bin Laden.
The fact: Well, even if -- and that is still a very big 'if' -- this happens, it still leaves thousands of his acolytes out in the world. More to the point, this conflict has brought a latent anti-Americanism out into the open across the Islamic world. Even Dr Mahathir Mohammed of Malaysia and Megawati Sukarnoputri of Indonesia -- tolerant societies on the whole -- were forced to condemn the bombing of Afghanistan. Those leaders, along with many others, were responding to public pressure.
Some -- though not all -- will now be inspired to take up arms against the United States. If you doubt that, think back to the Gulf War a decade ago. Terrorism got a huge fillip from that conflict; Saddam Hussein had never been a hero in India, but posters of the Iraqi president were suddenly to be found in every market.
Myth Five: Force solves nothing.
The fact: 'Peace at any cost' advocates are found in every nation, not least in India. They have constantly demanded a soft-glove approach to terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. Interference from Srinagar and Delhi is a constant complaint of the Indian armed forces -- the pressure to declare a cease-fire during Ramzan, for instance. Perhaps we should reconsider this approach?
President Bush vowed a war on "terrorism" rather than a war on Afghanistan. If he was sincere, we have seen just the beginning of that conflict.
T V R Shenoy
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