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Armitage coming to sell Bush's
vision on missile plan

United States Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage arrives in Delhi late Thursday night, for what is billed as "part of a road show" to sell US President George Bush's vision of the National Missile Defense plan.

Fortunately for him, India's conditional endorsement of the scheme has made his job a lot easier. This endorsement was spelt out in a ministry of external affairs statement, put out moments after External Affairs and Defence Minister Jaswant Singh received a call from US National Security Adviser Dr Condoleeza Rice on May 2.

Dr Rice apparently briefed Singh about Bush's speech at the National Defence University in Washington the day before, which, according to the statement, 'is a highly significant and far reaching statement of US national security...(which) seeks to transform the strategic parameters on which the Cold War security architecture was built.'

The main plank of this new security architecture is the missile defence plan, which envisages identifying and taking out enemy missiles before they can land on American soil. Expensive and untested, it is officially meant to deter missile strikes by 'rogue states' like North Korea and Iraq.

A similar plan launched by then president Ronald Reagan, the SDI, or Space Defence Initiative, is seen by many as one of the causes of the breakup of the Soviet Union, which went broke trying to match the US move.

India's alacrity in endorsing the plan took many by surprise, including Washington. But the reasons are not hard to find.

"For one, India has been knocking in vain on the doors of the earlier nuclear regime, represented by the Non-proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty," says a defence expert on condition of anonymity. "India wants to get in on the ground floor of this new security regime, or to put it another way, the new world order."

But an MEA official pointed out that Bush's vision addressed many of India's concerns. "For one, he seeks an end to the Mutually Assured Destruction -- MAD -- principle that dominated nuclear strategy for so long. Two, he has agreed to unilateral cuts in US missiles and nuclear de-alerting, something we have been advocating for some time.

"And finally, he wants to do this through dialogue, consultation and co-operation with the countries concerned (particularly Russia and China)... we hope this new multilateral compact will result in the elimination of all nuclear weapons," he added, echoing the MEA statement.

But the fact remains that India's support is hardly unconditional.

Indian Ambassador to the US Lalit Mansingh recently said the remaining US sanctions on India following the May 11 nuclear tests (ironically, Armitage's meeting with Jaswant Singh and Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee will take place on the third anniversary of those tests) would be lifted soon.

But whether or not the sanctions on dual use technology, imposed after then prime minister Indira Gandhi conducted a test in Pokhran on May 18, 1974 will be lifted remains to be seen.

Another interesting argument is that by endorsing the NMD with such alacrity, India might even stand to get some of the software contracts put out by the Pentagon for the system, which would be worth billions of dollars.

But another MEA official pointed out that India had not directly endorsed the NMD, but that of the US promise of "deep unilateral cuts in America's nuclear armoury....But by not opposing it, we have sort of given it a qualified support.

"He's (Bush) changing the nuclear doctrine, and we can't stop him... so it is better that we join now, and be actively involved in the new nuclear order."

This is a turnaround from Jaswant Singh's assertion in the US recently that a NMD would force China to enter upgrade itself, and may lead to yet another arms race in Asia.

The MEA official also noted that by sending Armitage to Delhi, and not to Islamabad, Washington was perhaps sending a message to its former ally.

And as for China, "while we are aware of speculation that the US is using us as a foil against China, the fact remains that China continues to indulge in proliferation, and will continue to upgrade its arsenal as it sees fit, NMD or no NMD."

He also pointed out a "contradiction" in the Chinese position. "We all know that the no missile defence scheme will be 100 per cent successful. The idea is to degrade the first strike, and thus enhance the second strike capabilities.

"Now the Chinese, unlike the Pakistanis, have always said they will not be the first to strike. That being the case, what have they got against a system essentially meant to deter first strikes?"

Perhaps Armitage, who is expected to meet Vajpayee, Singh, and other ministers as well as 15 Indian security experts, may have some of the answers.

The Complete Coverage: India & America's Missile Defence Plan

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