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AIADMK being forced into
post-poll coalition

With the Tamil Maanila Congress delaying a final decision on an alliance, realisation seems to be dawning on the AIADMK, that it may after all be forced into conceding a post-poll coalition if seat-sharing talks progress on the lines charted out by allies, and the combine too won the polls, despite the current 'image problem' it has suffered.

This, party sources pointed out, may go against the very grain of the AIADMK's stand against a coalition, and preference for a 'single party rule under a strong leader'.

"Either we concede a coalition of sorts, or eject a few allies from the Secular Front," said an AIADMK leader.

"Alternatively, all allies stick to seats offered by us, without raising unimaginative demands that are unjustified by their support base at the ground-level."

Indications are that the TMC, holding alliance talks also on behalf of the Congress parent, may have pushed the AIADMK into conceding more than that the latter may have intended. "Now, the reported offer is closer to 60 seats demanded by the TMC-Congress combine in Tamil Nadu, than the 35 originally proposed by AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha. Coupled with 27 seats offered to the PMK ally, and demands by two Communist parties, we may be left with around 145 seats of 234, of which we will have to win 118, to form a government of our own."

That certainly is a tall order. Tamil Nadu has voted overwhelmingly in favour of one of the two major contending combines in 1991 and 1996, but whether a repeat is possible in an 'issue-less' election this time, is another question. The AIADMK's hopes of returning to power at the head of a 'winning alliance' itself are based on the absence of any serious election issue, which alone may have made the 'anti-incumbency factor' work against the ruling DMK-led Bharatiya Janata Party-National Democratic Alliance, a likely candidate.

Implied even in this calculation is the possibility of the Congress-TMC combine settling for 55 seats, and the two Communist parties agreeing to eight or nine seats each. With Jayalalitha having offered the former 45 seats publicly, and the latter six seats each in private negotiations, any settlement could involve a higher figure. This is more so in the case of the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India-Marxists, whose negotiating teams have returned upset over the six seats offered to them.

Combined with the emerging situation in Pondicherry, where the Congress-TMC combine retains the initiative in the alliance talks, and Pradesh Congress Committee president V Narayanaswamy has demanded all 20 seats remaining after the 10 that the AIADMK is committed to offering the PMK ally, the alliance talks may be seen as progressing away from the original AIADMK game-plan.

If originally, the two Communist parties refused to let TMC founder G K Moopanar to negotiate for them as well as the Congress parent has done since, there now seems to be a 'silent conspiracy' in which the AIADMK may find itself trapped.

At the end of the day, the AIADMK may be seen as giving away seats for the PMK from its own share, in Pondicherry and Tamil Nadu, given the 65-odd seats that may come to be offered to the TMC-Congress combine and the two Communist parties together. "Thus, from 165 seats that should have come to the AIADMK, we would have to deduct the 27 seats allotted to the PMK. Even from the remaining, a few seats will have to be allotted to minor allies, most of whom would however be contesting on the AIADMK symbol. This may not go down well with our cadres, yet Jayalalitha is trying to be as accommodative as possible, as far as our allies are concerned."

In this context, the AIADMK leader refers to the allies' ready acceptance of a single-party rule, led by Jayalalitha in the post-polls scenario. "Even the Congress and TMC have obviously given up their demand for a coalition government in public. But silently, they seemed to have 'conspired' with the Communists to make things difficult for us, and to go against the unwritten commitment on single-party rule."

It is in this context that parties like the Congress and the two Communist parties feel justified in their fears of the AIADMK wanting to jettison them, through the unilateral induction of the PMK, and Jayalalitha's 'unwillingness' to part with more seats for them.

"Either, we sign on the dotted line, like she offered the Communist party delegations that met her on seat-sharing talks earlier in the week, or all of us would be forced to quit the alliance," said a senior Congress leader. "That is the reality of the situation, and it is for the respective party leaderships at the national level, if they want to stand by their state units, or by the AIADMK, when they are not so sure of Jayalalitha's post-poll moves that could endear her party to the ruling BJP at the Centre."

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