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Toll may go beyond 15,000

Onkar Singh in New Delhi

Officials at the science and technology ministry concede in private conversations that the death toll in Friday's earthquake could go well beyond 15,000.

"This is the worst 'quake that has hit the country. Even worse than Latur in Maharastra few years back where more then 10,000 people lost their lives," a top S&T ministry official and member of the crisis management group said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Additional Director General, Indian Meteorological Department, S K Srivastav more or less confirmed the afore-quoted official's statement, saying that almost all the villages and towns within a radius of 50 kilometres of Bhuj in Gujarat have been wiped out.

"With a quake of this intensity -- 6.9 on the Richter scale -- it is assumed that the epi-centre of the 'quake must have been totally devastated. Our worst fears could come true," said Srivastav.

He refused to speculate what would happen to Delhi if a similar 'quake were to hit the capital which lies in seismic zone four.

"Let us not speculate. Please do not try to put words into my mouth. But I can tell you that if such an eventuality were to arise it would create havoc. Because Delhi lies under seismic zone four and here a quake of the intensity up to 7 can always strike."

"But comparatively Mumbai would not face such a problem as it is not prone to seismic activity of this nature," he added.

Srivastav said the minor jolts felt in Bhavnagar before the earthquake had no relation with Friday's disaster. "There is no way scientists could predict the earthquake. China did it once, but failed the second time. Even Japan -- which lie in seismic zone five -- cannot predict earthquakes."

"What you can do is minimise the damage by telling people what kind of houses to build when you are in a seismic zone. You cannot hope to walk on the razor edge, barefeet. You have to be equipped. If you place your throat on the razor you know what would happen."

On whether there was a discrepancy in the measurement of the 'quake by the IMD and other observatories around the world, Srivastav said there was no controversy.

"The observatories in the country where the 'quake occurs measure the intensity by body wave magnitude, whereas other observatories round the world measure the same by surface wave magnitude. The body wave magnitude is more accurate."

Dr G D Gupta, advisor at the S&T ministry, also agreed that the death toll could be much higher.

"I would not be able to give you any figure because there is a disparity between the figures given by the media and the ones given by government agencies. But the death toll could be higher than our expectations. It could go beyond Latur," Dr Gupta felt.

"One peculiar thing is that in this 'quake many buildings have collapsed completely. We still do not know the full extent of damage. The damage to even well constructed houses in Ahmedabad and surrounding places has surprised us. In Latur the houses were not properly built."

The Complete Coverage

EXTERNAL LINKS:
The RD Killer Quake of Jan 26, 2001: Technical details
All about earthquakes in India and their impact
India Meteorological Department's earthquake reports
Disaster relief set-up in India
Major earthquakes across the world in recent times
A post-quake volunteer's unusual tryst with the departed
Earthquake News: Web site offering comprehensive news, information and features
Earthquake site map

USGS: Earthquake Hazards Program

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