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The Russian Bear Hug

Moscow has viewed the growing links between Pakistan and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the role that Islamabad and Kandahar have played in arming, training and supporting fundamentalist Islamic groups in Central Asia and Chechnya with growing anxiety, anger and concern.

It is no secret that Chechen terrorists have received active support and sustenance from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban regime has even accorded diplomatic recognition to the Chechen separatists. Earlier this year, Chechen leader Zelimkhan Yanderbiyev paid a highly publicised visit to Pakistan, where funds were openly collected for the Chechen jihad by groups like the Jamaat Islami and the Jamat ulema e Islam -- groups whose activities abroad are supported by the ISI.

Reacting strongly, the Russian government stated: 'The fast growth of religious radicalism, separatism and terrorism in Pakistan can have the gravest consequences for the stability of all countries of the region without exception, as well as for Pakistan's very statehood... Moscow is compelled to assert that Delhi's accusations of the backing to cross border terrorism are beginning to seem more and more well founded.'

Shortly after the Janata Party government assumed office in 1977, Atal Bihari Vajpayee assured his anxious Soviet counterpart Andrei Gromyko that Indo-Soviet relations were strong enough to withstand and transcend changes of government. Much has changed since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War. The Russian Federation today faces a multitude of serious problems and challenges -- both political and economic. Moscow has been dependant on western funding and goodwill for the past decade. The country can no longer afford to undertake large-scale economic projects abroad on concessional terms.

It has also not been able to assert its views on issues like the supply of cryogenic engines for India's space programme, the supply of weapons to Iran or the Anglo-American vendetta against Iraq and Yugoslavia. In these circumstances, Moscow has been forced to look for allies in the United Nations. Its growing relations -- military, political and economic -- with China have to be seen in this context. But in a larger context, Moscow shares New Delhi's views about the need for a multi polar world order and has consistently supported India in its bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council.

Russia is fortunate that after a period of political uncertainty, its leadership is now determined to learn from past mistakes and reassert the country's rightful place in the comity of nations. Born on October 7, 1952, President Vladimir Putin is Russia's first post World War II leader. Hailing from a family that went through immense sufferings during the siege of Leningrad, Putin is the third former KGB official to hold high office in Russia, following the example of Yuri Andropov and Yevgeny Primakov.

He was targeted and selected by the KGB when pursuing a distinguished academic career at the law faculty of the Leningrad State University. Posted to Dresden in the then East Germany in 1988, Putin returned to Leningrad just as the Berlin Wall was being torn down and Gorbachev was leading his country to disaster. His sharp intellect, organisational abilities, political skills and intense loyalty were recognised by St Petersburg Mayor Sobchak and Boris Yeltsin, who saw in him the potential and qualities of leadership so essential if Russia was to overcome its complex political and economic challenges.

The Putin dispensation has lost no time in spelling out its security and foreign policy doctrines. Moscow recognises that its main security challenges presently are internal. It has acknowledged that its present economic difficulties have led to terrorism, organised crime and narcotics posing a threat to the country's pluralistic society. It has spoken of a "semi-crescent" stretching from Kosovo through Turkey, the Trans Caucusus, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan to the Xinjiang Uighur area in China. Putin believes that "there are Chechnyas lurking everywhere" and that the entire Central Asian region will be destabilised if the Taliban reach the Tajikistan border. He is realistic enough to recognise that Moscow cannot confront NATO or the West and has therefore sought a policy of engagement.

The Russians are, however, only too aware that their internal weaknesses have resulted in western inroads into their traditional spheres of influence like the Baltic Republics, Eastern Europe and even Central Asia. While its political isolation and economic vulnerabilities have led to Moscow seeking a wide ranging partnership with Beijing, there is perhaps a realisation slowly dawning that China has its own great power ambitions. New Delhi should frankly share its concerns on this score with Putin, especially given the unrestrained Chinese propensity to transfer nuclear, missile and conventional hardware to Pakistan.

Russia has been and will remain a crucial and indeed predominant partner in India's defence preparedness. A long-term agreement on military technical cooperation that is valid till 2010 was signed when Prime Minister Primakov visited India in December 1998. The Kargil experience has shown that it is essential for us to rapidly modernise and augment the firepower of our armed forces. Moscow will be more than forthcoming on this score.

While the Indo-Russian joint Commission has sought to promote economic cooperation in areas ranging from power, coal and the oil industry to culture and the environment, Moscow hopefully understands that in a globalised world economic order, Indian companies will be looking for goods and services that are internationally competitive. Likewise, we will have to take measures to develop a more competitive edge for our exports if we are to compete with countries like China for a share of the Russian market. With annual bilateral trade reaching barely $ 1.25 billion, the scope for expansion is immense.

Further, there is need to explore the possibilities of expanding co-operation in areas of dual use technologies, especially in the light of wide ranging American restrictions on the transfer of dual use technologies to India. As the Russian economy picks up strength, one can be sure that Vladimir Putin will be far less prone to yield to external pressures than his predecessor was.

Russia and India are today facing direct challenges to their pluralistic societies from forces driven by extreme interpretations of medieval religious concepts. Russian support for our position on Kashmir has to be viewed in this perspective. It is not without significance that the 1994 Narasimha Rao-Yeltsin Declaration proclaimed that India and Russia "reiterate their support for each others territorial integrity as constituted by law and enshrined in their respective constitutions."

The Constitution holds that the whole of the State of Jammu and Kashmir including portions now under the illegal occupation of Pakistan are an integral part of India. New Delhi will no doubt make this clear to its Russian friends. Given the shared concern of Moscow and New Delhi about the policies of the Taliban, there is little doubt that the Putin visit will produce wide ranging measures to deal with the menace posed by religious extremism. The Russians, like the British before them, are only too aware of the dangers of getting involved excessively in Afghanistan. In its zeal to attain "strategic depth," our western neighbour appears to have learnt nothing from the lessons of history.

The Russians have been consistent champions of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. While differences on nuclear issues with Moscow will persist, it needs to be remembered that the Russians have always acted with restraint on issues pertaining to our nuclear programme, especially after the May 1998 nuclear tests. New Delhi shares Moscow's concerns about the national missile defence system that the Americans are proposing to develop and deploy. India and Russia have been discussing the text of a strategic partnership pact during the past few years. This pact will be signed by the Russian president during his forthcoming visit.

But, above all, India and Russia share common interests in safeguarding their territorial integrity and pluralistic societies against the onslaught of forces of religious extremism and in promoting democratisation of the world order. President Putin will, therefore, be a welcome and honoured guest when he arrives in Delhi on October 2.

G Parthasarathy