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Iran: A Revolution at the Crossroads

Politics, it is said, makes strange bedfellows. Economic liberalisation and globalisation are strongly opposed by outfits like the Swadeshi Jagran Manch on the one hand and by the left parties on the other, in India. Likewise, conservative religious clerics on the one hand and leftist reformists supportive of President Khatami on the other, are the most vociferous critics of liberalisation and globalisation in Iran.

The conservative religious elements fear that globalisation and close relations with the United States will undermine the sense of national pride and self-respect that Iran gained after the Islamic revolution. It would also erode the economic influence they wield through the control of huge public enterprises and of imports of foodgrains and other essential commodities at very favourable rates of exchange.

The leftist reformers recently elected to the Majlis who support President Khatami's reform agenda, oppose Iran's integration in a process of economic globalisation because they fear the adverse political repercussions of the rise in the prices of food and other essentials that would take place if Iran joins the global economic mainstream and adopts a uniform exchange rate.

Despite the opposition within the country, Iran has chosen to apply for membership to the WTO. Influential and reform-minded economists who I met during a recent visit to Iran, made it clear that they see no way out of the present stagnation in agricultural and industrial production and growing levels of unemployment in the country other than a serious attempt at economic liberalisation that would open the doors to foreign investment and competition, enhance productivity and restructure the entire system of subsidies.

The conservatives fear that globalisation would bring in western cultural influences and undermine the norms and values that the Iranian Revolution had ushered in. The reformists say that Persian culture and Islamic traditions and beliefs are too strong and deep-rooted to be eroded by Coca Cola, McDonalds and Western films.

Despite these differences, there is little doubt that whatever direction Iran takes in defining its national priorities and policies, Imam Khomeini will continue to be respected and revered by its people in much the same manner that Mao is revered in China, even though that country has moved very far from the policies he espoused. One hopes that in much the same manner as it withdrew its opposition to China's entry to the WTO, the United States will adopt a positive approach to Iran's quest for membership in the WTO.

India should play a positive role in seeing that as Iran seeks to redefine its international priorities, it is not denied its due place in the WTO. We had, after all, actively supported early Iranian entry into the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation.

There is much that has been written in the Western media about the alleged denial of equality for women in Iran after the revolution. It is true that the rigid enforcement of regulations regarding how women should be attired in public has been the focus of international media attention. But, unlike in some of Iran's neighbours, women do have their own role and contribution in different facets of Iranian national life.

Chador-clad women are often seen driving their own cars or even riding pillion on motorcycles in Tehran. More importantly, women do have a significant contribution to make in the government, in academic discussions and even in Parliament, where a lady member recently attended the proceedings dressed in a scarf and manteau and not in the customary chador.

While President Khatami is immensely popular and his supporters won around 200 of the 290 seats in the elections earlier this year, effective power including control of the armed forces, the police and the Revolutionary Guard remains in the hands of the religious leadership headed by former President Syed Ali Khamnei, known in Iran as "The Leader". Two decades after the Islamic Revolution, there is a vigorous debate embracing all sections of society, particularly the students and youth, about what direction Iranian policies should take for the country to fulfill its full potential in the contemporary world.

The issues include future directions of the economic and foreign policies of the country, press and academic freedom and even the role of the religious leadership in national affairs. But these are issues which Iranians should debate, discuss and arrive at national solutions. The outside world would be well advised to avoid passing judgment or offering gratuitous comments.

The Iranians realise that with the Indian economy set to grow at a rate of over seven per cent in the coming years, India will be a natural and logical market for its immense resources of natural gas and oil. Iran has the second largest resources of natural gas in the world. While there is some concern and interest in the direction our growing relations with the United States and Israel may take, Iranian leaders recognise that given our independent foreign policies and economic and military potential, Iran and India are natural "strategic partners". We have made it clear that given the chronic instability and medieval intolerance of the Taliban, we see Iran as a natural and long-term partner as a transit point for our economic, trade and energy ties with Central Asia.

There is also a growing realisation in India that the competitiveness of our exports to Russia will improve vastly when there are reliable transit routes to Russia through Iran. We are exploring the development of a sea route to the Russian port of Astrakhan through Bandar Abbas.

Iran feels that the construction of a gas pipeline through Pakistan is the cheapest way to transport natural gas to India. The Iranians, however, do acknowledge that given Pakistan's chronic political instability and its failing economy, India naturally has its concerns about such a project. Militant groups like the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and the Harkat-ul -Mujahideen have, after all, pledged to wage a jehad against India not just in Kashmir, but throughout the country. General Musharraf is an ardent supporter of jehad. Can India have any faith in assurances about the security of transit routes for crucial energy supplies through Pakistan when that country's rulers justify jehad by groups they control, even though they deny (without any credibility) any hand in the terrorist activities of these groups?

Pakistan's petroleum minister has asserted that his country expects to be paid $ 700 million annually as transit charges for natural gas from Iran to India. It is certain that these revenues in foreign exchange will be used to finance a build up in Pakistan's military, nuclear and missile programmes. Would it be wise for India to finance such a Pakistani military build up, especially at a time when that country is receiving no foreign investments because of its political instability, growing law and order problems and deepening economic crisis?

We are planning to import large quantities of LNG from Qatar. We could do likewise in the case of Iran, at least till Pakistan shows signs of behaving more responsibly and positively in the conduct of its political and economic relations with us. Pakistan cannot expect to get huge revenues from pipelines to India, even while it wages jehad against us, in much the same manner as it has been made clear that jehad and dialogue do not go hand-in-hand.

While considerations of Islamic solidarity and its role in the OIC inhibit Iran from being more forthright in voicing its views about Pakistan's support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Iranians are concerned at the growing nexus between sectarian extremist groups in Pakistan that regularly target Shias and their places of worship and the Taliban. They recognise that this nexus has led to violence and instability among their Central Asian neighbours and even in China.

Iran makes no secret of the fact that it looks forward to working closely with India, Russia and others to prevent the spread of "Wahabi extremism" from Pakistan and the Taliban controlled areas of Afghanistan and to promote peace and reconciliation in that unfortunate country. We need to understand and engage Iran more actively in a shared quest for peace, stability, prosperity and respect for ancient civilisational values, in the years ahead.