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AIADMK keeps its coalition option open

With the AIADMK general council resolving to align only with parties interested in helping it "install MGR rule under Jayalalitha's leadership in Tamil Nadu", it may have made a strategic departure of keeping its coalition options open.

The 'silent shift' in stand takes into account the TANSI case verdict sentencing Jayalalitha to three years rigorous imprisonment and also the possible Tamil Maanila Congress ally's insistence on a coalition after the polls.

"The general council authorises Jayalalitha to form alliances with parties willing to help the AIADMK achieve its twin goals of installing 'MGR rule' under Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu, and 'AIADMK rule' in Pondicherry after the assembly elections next year," the brief political resolution adopted at Tuesday's meeting in Madras said.

This is a clear departure from Jayalalitha's strident stand of not having a coalition in Tamil Nadu in days preceding the TANSI case verdict and is closer to press releases of the post-verdict period in which she has used the ambiguous term of 'MGR rule' instead.

Read with the general council's clear-cut stand on Pondicherry, where it insists on an 'AIADMK government' in Tamil Nadu, the party is satisfied with 'MGR rule', but under Jayalalitha.

This means that the party is in no mood to hand over the reins of a possible coalition, or even a pre-poll alliance, to such leaders as TMC founder G K Moopanar, even under adverse circumstances, as is being speculated in some circles.

Even if Jayalalitha is disqualified, it now flows, the AIADMK would still like her to lead the alliance and project her cause and also party's cause as the main poll plank of the Opposition combine.

The AIADMK seems to be toying with Jayalalitha being elected leader either of the AIADMK or the alliance, if either comes close to forming a government. This, even if she is disqualified from contesting assembly elections.

The claim then will be for the state governor to swear her in as chief minister, as the Constitution would give her six months to get elected.

There is no clear-cut constitutional provision barring her from being sworn in chief minister though the spirit of Article 191 of the Constitution relating to disqualification from contesting elections should apply otherwise. It is another matter whether the gubernatorial authority will cite a technicality to keep her away, if the people's mandate wills otherwise.

This could, however, put paid to the TMC's hopes of Moopanar being projected as an alternative chief ministerial nominee of the alliance.

This will imply that the AIADMK wants the Opposition combine to make Jayalalitha's disqualification, if any, to be its main poll plank - and under her overall leadership. In effect, any possible disqualification would give Jayalalitha more time and greater force to campaign across the state, without having to tour her constituency.

The latter would otherwise have become a necessity in the light of her having lost her seat in the 1996 assembly elections by over 7000 votes.

The general council resolution seems to have separated Jayalalitha's leadership of a combine from the possibility of a coalition. While the former cannot be compromised, the latter can be considered, though not outright. The AIADMK would still like to have a single-party government, but if a coalition alone is viable, it would not like to shut the doors on such a possibility post-haste, as Jayalalitha had done earlier.

The party will not say this loud and clear as it will be interpreted as weakness, by allies and AIADMK cadres, the former seeking a larger pound of flesh in seat-sharing talks. Thus, the AIADMK allies will have to put off all talk of a coalition government until after the polls, when decisions will be taken on an as-is-where-is basis.

The resolution has a hidden message of sorts for the PMK partner in the rival DMK-led Bharatiya Janata Party-National Democratic Alliance coalition, as far as the assembly poll alliance in Pondicherry goes. The PMK has been a restive partner in the NDA and there has been speculation that it will cross over to the AIADMK alliance on the eve of assembly polls, even if it means losing two ministerial berths in the Vajpayee Government.

The DMK may not be able to offer the PMK too many assembly seats in their northern stronghold in Tamil Nadu due to political compulsions. The latter has also been publicly hoping to form a government in Pondicherry next year and follow it up with a party-run Tamil Nadu after the assembly polls in 2006.

The AIADMK resolution declares that the PMK would be welcome to the alliance only on its terms.

Though the AIADMK has been talking about a party government in Pondicherry, here too, it would not be unwilling to form a coalition, depending on the post-poll scenario. But letting the PMK lead a government in the union territory or allotting it adequate seats to try and form a government of its own is just out of the question as far as the AIADMK is concerned.

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