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The Rediff Interview/ Professor Madhavan Palat

'Russia is not going to play Pakistan against India'

Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week has generated little enthusiasm in the Indian establishment, especially if compared to the hyped-up visit of United States President Bill Clinton in March. Yet, barely more than a decade ago, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, predecessor of the Russian Federation, was seen as New Delhi's closest ally while the two democracies were estranged.

Professor Madhavan Palat of the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, a specialist on the former Soviet Union and Russia, gives the reasons for the discrepancy and points out that despite its current problems, Russia remains a good friend of India. A conversation with Onkar Singh:

Why is there apparent indifference in the Indian government's attitude towards the Russian president's visit?

There is a lot of difference between Bill Clinton's visit to India early this year and Vladimir Putin's visit. In between, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee also visited the United States. India and the US are coming closer to each other. Russia, on the other hand, is an old and trusted friend.

But we cannot compare the stature of Russia with that of the erstwhile Soviet Union. Russia is financially weak, a country that is rebuilding its economy. You can't expect India to play up this visit to the same level as that of the American president.

On the other hand, Clinton's visit was different. It marked a sea change in our relations with the United States. The effect was dramatic. Also, it is clear that the US is undisputedly the most powerful nation in the world. The American president's visit would have had a similar impact on any other country.

The Communist Party of India-Marxist is upset that the Russian president's visit is not being given the same importance as Mr Clinton's visit.

It is not that we are deliberately trying to play down the visit. The point is: How much can you play it up?

You have to recognise the reality of the situation. Russia does not have the same position as the Soviet Union had. On the other hand, the US is much stronger today than it was during the Cold War. We would be accused of being unrealistic if we played up Putin's visit.

What can we expect from Putin's visit? What do the two sides desire from each other?

Russia is an old friend. Putin will seek to capitalise on that friendship. Let us remember that the relations between India and Russia have not changed much.

The Indian prime minister would most definitely tell Putin that India would continue to expect its support on Kashmir. We also want their support for India's claim for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. And we want Russia to tell Pakistan to stop transborder terrorism.

Russia, in turn, will ask India to play a greater role in the Central Asia situation. The Russians will seek India's support in combating narco-terrorism that is spreading through Afghanistan.

I would like to mention here that Russia is keen that India should join the Shanghai Group, which at present comprises of Russia, China, and three Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgistan, Tajikistan). It will be of great importance to India if it joins the Shanghai Group of Five. If India becomes a member, that would raise its profile.

Then, there are the defence deals concerning tanks, aircraft, and naval ships, besides technology matters that will come up during the official meetings that Putin has with various Indian leaders during his visit.

Do you think India needs to keep an eye on the developments that might take place during Putin's visit to Pakistan? Is that a cause for concern for us?

Not at all! Of course, we must be alert and do our diplomatic footwork reasonably well. We must keep ourselves informed about the developments. But Russia is not going to play Pakistan against India. Russia would be the biggest loser if that happens. They know very well it is no use losing India for Pakistan.

What would be Russia's stand on Kashmir?

Russia's stand on Kashmir has been consistent. They are not going to change their stand. Nor is the Russian president going to preach to India that we have to go in for negotiations, mediation, etc.

On the other hand, the Russians would be interested in having a strategic partnership statement that includes Kashmir.

What was the biggest challenge before Putin when he took over as president of Russia?

The central problem before Putin was to make the State an effective functioning structure. What (former president Boris) Yeltsin did after the collapse of the USSR was to break up the nation by breaking up the Communist Party. The Communist Party's demise is not the same as the decline of a party in a democratic system.

Moreover, in the Soviet situation, the breakdown of the State led to the break-up of the country's economy. There was a massive flight of capital from Russia that bled the economy.

Would you say President Putin, being a former KGB agent, is an able administrator?

This thing need not be stressed too much. (Former US president) George Bush was the head of the CIA. A person with a background in intelligence has no less or more significant experience than does any other person.

Putin's leadership capacity is borne out by how well he has been reconsolidating the Russian State. This he is doing by controlling the financial mafia, reintegrating the regions, and, most importantly, he is trying to control local corruption. This is how he is re-establishing the Russia as a nation.

Moreover, Putin is a good administrator. He is stable, focused and knows the limits under which he is acting. He is not sacrificing good relations with the West while re-establishing old friendships.

He has re-established relations with Iraq, Korea and China. His actions are independent.

The main purpose of this visit is to send a message of reassurance to the Russians, who are very upset that Russia has become so helpless. He is not trying to challenge America.

The Putin visit: The full coverage

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