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Where does the Congress stand?

Well, the shouting has died down for the moment at least; one can only hope for the sake of unfortunate Bihar that the bitterness between the National Democratic Alliance and the Rashtriya Janata Dal does not spill over from the Vidhan Sabha into the streets. But grant these two inveterate foes the virtue of absolute clarity, we know that the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Samata Party, and the Janata Dal United are opposed to the Rashtriya Janata Dal and vice-versa.

Where, however, does the Congress stand in all this?

To date, I have no idea where Sonia Gandhi and her party stand with regard to Laloo Prasad Yadav and his men. It is fine and easy to say that the Congress shall never support any ministry in which the Bharatiya Janata Party is an active participant. But does that translate into automatic backing for the Rashtriya Janata Dal? And if so, how shall the Congress explain away all that rhetoric about "Jungle Raj" which it spouted during the elections?

I believe that Sonia Gandhi and the Congress Working Committee are perfectly aware of the difficulties. Bihar with its 54 four Lok Sabha seats plays a very large part in the calculations of the Congress, being next in importance only to Uttar Pradesh. But offering support from outside to the Rashtriya Janata Dal effectively means playing second fiddle to Laloo Prasad Yadav for many years to come. On the other hand, not offering support means alienating the rest of the Opposition in Delhi which in any case is reluctant to accept Sonia Gandhi¹s guidance.

This, with a few changes here and there, was precisely the same situation that Narasimha Rao faced in May 1996. The United Front required a letter of support from him which could be shown to President Shankar Dayal Sharma. Rao proceeded to take a post-lunch nap at the crucial time, leaving an exasperated President no option but to call on Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form a ministry.

Sonia Gandhi did not go to sleep; instead, she went to Khajuraho to attend a dance festival. But the result was the same as in 1996 -- the delay of any letter of support until Governor Pande had called on Nitish Kumar to take the oath of office as the new chief minister.

As I noted, one can sympathise with the dilemma facing the Congress high command. It is no secret that many of the newly-elected Congress legislators entered the Vidhan Sabha on a specifically anti-Laloo Prasad Yadav platform. Half of these Congressmen are from the southern parts of Bihar, the area which is supposed to be spun off into a separate state of Jharkhand. The Rashtriya Janata Dal boss had gone around swearing that the new state would be carved out only over his dead body...

It is true that a desperate Laloo Prasad Yadav had abruptly reversed himself, promising to back the demand for Jharkhand in an effort to woo the Congress Working Committee. But who believes him any longer? Further, the Congress fears that Laloo Prasad Yadav -- in or out of power - is perfectly capable of splitting others. Neither Sonia Gandhi nor her coterie wanted to see the Bihar Congress Legislative Party split into pro-Jharkhand and anti-Jharkhand factions.

But these are questions that cannot be pushed under the carpet forever. At Pachmarhi, 18 months ago, the Congress had set its face firmly against alliances with regional outfits. Whether or not one agreed with that judgment, that was at least a policy. But the party abruptly reversed itself for the General Election, striking up agreements with Jayalalitha and Laloo Prasad Yadav among others. It then changed course yet again for the Bihar Vidhan Sabha poll, denouncing a decade of Rashtriya Janata Dal domination.

With this history, it is no wonder if voters are confused and uncertain where the Congress stands. Election for the Tamil Nadu assembly is due next year; does anyone know whether the Congress shall be fighting in association with Jayalalitha and the AIADMK? Or will it choose to fight alone? On its current record, who can say?

The Bharatiya Janata Party, rightly or wrongly, is determined to make a success of its leagues with various regional forces scattered across the country. The Congress, on the other hand, is a party that simply cannot make up its mind one way or the other. It requires a long-term strategy to ensure its continued survival, but Sonia Gandhi is incapable of providing anything better than short-term tactics.

T V R Shenoy