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Jayalalitha's discharge rattles DMK

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

With assembly elections a year away, and by-elections for three seats just a month ahead, the Madras high court's discharge of Jayalalitha in the 'Tansi case' last week has heightened the poll anxieties of the ruling DMK leadership in Tamil Nadu.

The party was recovering from the realities of the electoral situation in the state, as reflected by the recent Lok Sabha poll results, when the verdict of Justice S Thangaraj, came as a much-needed morale-booster for the rival AIADMK.

"It comes as a two-way signal for the AIADMK," says a DMK strategist. "On the one hand, it has removed the lingering fears among its cadres that the worst may still be in store for their leader, before the assembly elections next year, thus affecting not only the party's poll prospects, but also its very future. Now, not only have those doubts been removed, it has also emboldened them. Even 'emboldened officials' of the past four years have now been 'crudely reminded' of which side of their bread is buttered, and which side, is acidic."

For starters, the state government has decided to go in appeal to the Supreme Court, without approaching a division bench of the high court, against the single judge's order. "That by itself should speak volumes, and also mean 'erring officials' would now be reminded of the heyday of the 'Jayalalitha raj', when the choice was between having your bread buttered, or acidified."

It's not as simple as that, though. The truth maybe closer to what an AIADMK leader had to say, though the DMK's anxieties and 'bureaucratic behavioural changes' could be for real. "The fact remains, we were leading in many assembly segments in the Lok Sabha polls, but the urban segments in individual constituencies offset our marginal gains, and that was because of the 'Vajpayee factor' which will be absent next year. That being the case, the high court verdict has re-energised our ranks, who smell victory in the assembly polls next year, and are doubly geared up for it, now."

Jayalalitha seems to feel the same way. Following the high court order is her decision to meet with district-level party functionaries at all levels, for 32 days. "This is in preparation for the assembly polls next year," she said in a statement addressed to party cadres, "And also for the three by-elections next month."

The AIADMK now feels confident of winning at least two of the three assembly seats -- Nellikuppam and Arantangi -- while possibly conceding Tiruchi II to the DMK rival. "Of course, a lot will depend on our alliance, and theirs, but if we win even two of the three by-election seats, it's as good as winning the assembly elections next year," says the AIADMK leader.

The DMK leader concedes as much, but is sure his party and allies would bag all three by-poll seats. "But we will have to work really hard, and also stay united, both as a party and as an alliance, all the time if we have to keep the AIADMK-Congress combine out," he says. "And that may become an uphill task, particularly in the assembly elections next year. To that extent, Jayalalitha maybe said to lead a more cohesive and much-disciplined alliance."

If the high court verdict has come as a shot in the arm for the 'AIADMK upsurge', as the party leader dubs it, it has also demoralised the DMK cadre. They are now anxious to keep the AIADMK out of power next year. "That could be a bad day for the state and its population, but a worse day still for the DMK, as a party and its leaders, as well," says a district-level office-bearer of the party.

However, the DMK source attributes it all to the 'drift' of the past four years, under chief minister and party chief M Karunanidhi, "who used to be more decisive, and voter-savvy, in his earlier innings". Explains he: "On the administrative side, the government has been taking one unimaginative decision after the other, which makes it less popular -- if not totally unpopular -- with the voters. On the political side, the party leadership has let things take their own course, without setting right the anomalies and the deficiencies in the once-monolithic organisational structure."

In this context, he refers to the chequered history of the cases against Jayalalitha, as a case in point. "At every stage the government bungled," he says. "Even senior bureaucrats and ministers did not know whether it was a special court or a special judge that was trying Jayalalitha, until the courts came to their rescue. And even before the 'Tansi case', the courts had discharged Jayalalitha in two other cases. Yet, the political leadership did not pep up the administration, or even reorganise its legal team, to work out the possibilities and work in the solutions. With the result, you have the high court discharging the accused in the case even before the trial court was seized of the matter, which is still believed to be water-tight."

Party cadres attribute the ineffectiveness of the ageing first-line, and the complacency of the powerful second-line as the cause for this drift. "So much so, you have had such senior leaders as the Madurai Rural District party unit secretary Kaveri Maniam feeling left out of the electoral race, time and again, that too when the second line in most cases is still upstartish, arrogant and unfamiliar, not only with the party's ideals and goals, but also about their own territories and priorities."

A veteran of the Dravidian scene says the "DMK may become a 'dying party' before long, if earnest and purposeful attempts are not made to resurrect the organisation, and make it contemporary". Says he: "Like the Congress of the 'sixties and the 'seventies, we expect our past to deliver the goods, while the present is allowed to take care of itself, and the future forgotten. Against this, you have more purposeful leaders like Jayalalitha eroding our confidence, and more organised parties like the BJP, planning for the future -- both at our cost."

According to him, "Unless the DMK plans carefully, and executes it in full measure, there is the possibility of the state drifting into a two-way electoral battle where greater relevance would come to be bestowed upon the AIADMK on the one hand, and the BJP, or such other 'nationalist elements' as may consolidate, on the other."

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