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Patnaik's coup against Mohapatra leaves everyone agape

Bibhuti Mishra in Bhubaneswar

It is a move that has left everyone fazed. 'The people of Orissa should be wary of Naveen Patnaik,' roared JD-S state president Ashok Das soon after the Biju Janata Dal chief expelled his party's chairman of the Political Affairs Committee Bijoy Mohapatra. Not only was Mohapatra's ticket to contest the forthcoming assembly elections cancelled, he was also expelled from the party for six years.

The move was swift and startling, the timing so perfect, that it left even a shrewd politician like Mohapatra stupefied. While he could only whine, "It's back-stabbing, " other BJD leaders, crestfallen, could only say, "It is surprising and unfortunate. We were not consulted."

So why did Naveen Patnaik do it?

The ostensible reason for the action: "The matter was very serious. Mohapatra's continuation would have affected the party's poll prospects and the future government. On the other hand, his expulsion will have no impact on the party's prospects."

But there are not many takers for the view that Bijoy Mohapatra, one of the founding fathers of the BJD, was engaged in anti-party activities. On the contrary, the popular view is that Naveen has managed to eliminate his biggest adversary within the party.

Ever since their patch-up last year, there had been an uneasy relationship between the two. Of them, Bijoy's political acumen and shrewdness always put Naveen the political tyro in discomfort. It is clear that Patnaik has finally succumbed to the view that Mohapatra was the biggest threat to his own chief ministerial aspirations.

By cancelling his ticket on the last day of filing of nomination papers -- after Mohapatra had filed his papers from Patkura the previous day -- Patnaik has ensured that Mohapatra will be kept out of the assembly even as an independent candidate. Patnaik's loyalists assert that Mohapatra had opened a channel of communication with the Congress and could have destabilised the party from within. But this theory finds few takers although it is a fact that Mohapatra's ability to cause instability with his large following must have given Patnaik sleepless nights.

But what remains shrouded in mystery is, who could have instigated Patnaik to take the extreme step since every senior leader says he was not consulted? Was it the BJP which might have convinced him that his claim to the chief ministership was at stake because of Mohapatra's ambition? Mohapatra has been the number two in the Biju Patnaik cabinet too. And a potent power centre.

So what will Mohapatra now do?

Mohapatra, swiftly recovering his composure, has threatened to drive Patnaik out of the BJD. But it is easier said than done. Other senior BJD leaders including working president Nalini Kanta Mohanty have expressed their displeasure but they are not venturing out; whether Mohapatra can rally them around him is the million dollar question.

Though Mohapatra has pleaded his case before the returning officer, his nomination is likely to be rejected thus keeping him out of the assembly.

Option one before Mohapatra is to lead a third front against both the BJD-BJP and the Congress. JD-S president Ashok Das, sensing an opportunity in this, has said, "Our doors are open to all the BJD rebels. It is their own party." In fact he has condemned the action against Mohapatra in the strongest terms: "It is an act of treachery unprecedented in Orissa politics."

Or, Mohapatra could effect a split in the BJD and, taking the help of the working president Nalinikanta Mohanty, 'expel' Patnaik. This depends on the other leaders and what stand they take.

Finally, Mohapatra could consider joining the Congress; but it appears highly unlikely because his political career began against the Congress; besides, doing so would prove Patnaik's charge against him.

Whatever he does, it is clear Mohapatra will not be able to strike right now. All the parties are in election mode, and most leaders and workers are busy in their constituencies. With Naveen Patnaik perceived to be forming the next government, a waiting game is currently on. The only active ones are backroom strategists, but even their gameplan will unfold only after the election results are out.

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