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Message from the Hindi belt

The two largest states in India are Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The two largest parties in the Lok Sabha are the BJP and the Congress. On the face of it, you would imagine that the two biggest parties would draw a hefty proportion of their support from the two most populous states. And in thinking so, you would be wrong.

In the last general election the BJP did remarkably well in Bihar, where it won 23 of the 29 nine seats it contested; its electoral ally, the Janata Dal-United, won 18 more. But it was a different story in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP won just 29 of the 77 contests in which it was engaged; that performance was particularly pathetic given that the BJP had won a whopping 57 seats in the 1998 general election.

As for the Congress, its record was absolutely horrible in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, both in 1998 and in 1999. In Bihar, where it had a seat-sharing arrangement with Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal in the last two Lok Sabha polls, it slipped from five seats in the twelfth general election to four in the thirteenth. In Uttar Pradesh, where it had drawn a total blank in 1998, it reached double figures, but winning 10 seats out the 76 six you contest is nothing to write home about.

And so we come to the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and the assembly polls in Bihar. How will the two biggest parties in India perform in the two largest states?

Let us begin by taking a look at Uttar Pradesh. The major reason for the poor performance of the BJP and the Congress was due to the extraordinary rise of the Bahujan Samaj Party and of Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. The BSP won 14 seats, and the Samajwadi Party, coming uncomfortably close to the BJP, notched up 26 victories. (Strictly speaking, the Samajwadi Party only has 25 members in the Lok Sabha, since Mulayam Singh Yadav fought, and won, from two constituencies; he has now nominated his son, Akhilesh, from Kannauj which he vacated.)

Can anyone honestly say that the BJP has any reason to believe that it is better placed to fight an election today than it was a few months ago? Remember that Kalyan Singh is now in open rebellion against the party, which is bound to dent the party to some extent. Its allies, particularly the Loktantrik Congress, are far more vocal in expressing their dissent than they were. (The Kannauj Lok Sabha constituency, by the way, has been left to the Loktantrik Congress.)

Turn now to Bihar, where the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance appears bent on pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory. Laloo Prasad Yadav can barely conceal the glee on his face when he looks at his foes. His alliance with the Congress is on the rocks, but the open fighting among his enemies more than compensates for that.

Actually, you can't really blame the BJP for what is happening in Bihar. It was always asking for too much to expect that the Janata Dal wouldn't revert to its old bad habits -- leaders maligning each other and then proceeding to split the party. One of the reasons why the National Democratic Alliance did so well in the state during the Lok Sabha polls was that the erstwhile Samata Party, Sharad Yadav's Janata Dal-United, and the BJP were fighting on the same side. Once they revert to the insane policy of "friendly contests" -- a euphemism for fighting each other -- the only person to benefit could be Laloo Prasad Yadav.

At the end of the day, a handful of by-elections in Uttar Pradesh and full-fledged assembly polls in neighbouring Bihar won't really change anything in Delhi. (If nothing else, the Congress, which is the chief opposition group, will be as ill-placed as the BJP!) It is quite possible that a reverse, assuming there is one, won't lead to any change in Lucknow either.

But what kind of a message would it send out if the two largest states reject the only national parties in India? (Yes, I know that technically there are other 'national' parties recognised by the Election Commission, but the BJP and the Congress are the only ones that actually deserve the honour.) Wouldn't further losses in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar be tantamount to saying that the two states have no confidence in the Congress and the BJP?

T V R Shenoy