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Dharmapuri killings dampen AIADMK cadres

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

After a special court sentenced All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam general secretary J Jayalalitha to a year's rigorous imprisonment and three college girls being burnt alive in Dharmapuri district, party cadres aren't enthusiastic about their chances in the February 17 by-election to three assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu.

Earlier, they had hoped to stage a comeback of some sort, but the Dharmapuri killings have messed up any chance the AIADMK and Jayalalitha may have had.

For the Tamil Nadu voter, recovering from the fading memories of the AIADMK raj, the Dharmapuri killings were a shocking reminder of what might be in store if the party is voted in, says a veteran of Dravidian politics.

"To that extent, it may have its impact, even on the assembly by-elections in Arantangi, Trichy II and Nellikuppam. The AIADMK has a fighting chance still in the last two," he says.

There was no doubt that the AIADMK was on the comeback trail. Whether it would have made it back to power in the assembly elections next year is another matter.

The Lok Sabha elections of the past two years have already shown that the party is no more a pariah, not only to other political parties, but also to the average voter, who is getting increasingly frustrated with the unfocussed administration of the fourth Karunanidhi government.

Despite having toppled the Vajpayee government at the Centre, the AIADMK, in the company of the Congress and the communists, won 14 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry in the elections last year. That was also the first time since the first general election of 1952 when the losing combine in the state had got as many seats. In the earlier outing, in 1998, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-Tamil Maanila Congress alliance had posted 10 seats, the first time that the 'losing combine' had touched double digits since 1952.

Now that the TMC is backing the AIADMK in the upcoming by-elections, the latter had hoped to bridge the gap between it and the competition by poll time next year. But the court verdict and the Dharmapuri killings have changed all that.

There is no denying the effectiveness of Jayalalitha's lawyers in delaying the trials in most cases against her by making procedural moves. But with a conviction and sentence against her, they are not sure now whether to go through quickly with the proposed appeals in the Pleasant Stay Hotel case or to invent methods to delay it.

"A delayed appeal could mean that Jayalalitha would remain convicted in the eyes of the voter," says a knowledgeable AIADMK leader. "By seeking a fast-track appeal, we could also be tempting fate..." In this context, he also refers to the ongoing trial in the 'property case' against Jayalalitha, and the state's appeals against lower courts discharging her in the coal import case, and the TANSI land deal case.

While party cadres were overjoyed and the second-line leaders were even emboldened to challenge the ruling DMK after Jayalalitha's discharge in the TANSI case, they now sound unsure, if not demoralised.

"When the TANSI case, which was publicised as the most convincing case against Jayalalitha, went in her favour, we thought the worst was over. Given our increasing popularity, as shown by the Lok Sabha polls, we even hoped to stage a comeback in the assembly polls next year. Not any more."

Right now, party leaders are questioning the wisdom of building on the TANSI case verdict. They are also doubtful why TMC chief G K Moopanar joined hands with the AIADMK, despite his known antagonism to Jayalalitha.

They feel that Moopanar might have hoped to become the chief ministerial candidate of the combine if Jayalalitha is disqualified from contesting elections.

But the AIADMK had considered that before Jayalalitha invited Moopanar into her fold. The plan was that the AIADMK would hold the reins due to its larger number of MLAs, while Moopanar would be the puppet chief minister who would facilitate Jayalalitha's return by modifying state laws.

But the TMC, however, is clearly re-evaluating its support for the AIADMK, in the light of Moopanar's statement that it was confined only to the by-elections. A section of the TMC is still convinced that most of the middle-class, believed to be the party's prospective vote base, might go the BJP way for good if it does not return to the middle path between the DMK and the AIADMK.

And in Tamil Nadu today, the middle class vote is what decides the fate of elections.

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