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PMK, MGR-ADMK may quit NDA soon

The Pattali Makkal Katchi and MGR-ADMK are likely to quit the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and join an alliance of the Congress-led Opposition at the national level.

The crossover could herald a larger shake-up of the NDA in which the Trinamul Congress is being counted, according to sources.

While the PMK has four members in the Lok Sabha, two of who are ministers of state, MGR-ADMK founder S Thirunavukkarasu is the only parliamentarian from the party. The five may not be able to rock the Vajpayee government, but what is being scripted is a simultaneous shock treatment to the NDA, which could rock the coalition boat in favour of the Congress at the Centre and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.

The plan is for the MGR-ADMK to merge with the AIADMK and the PMK to align with the party for the assembly election, due in March-April. While AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha is camping in Hyderabad, working out a strategy, her confidante Sasikala Natarajan has since returned to Madras. The latter is staying outside Jayalalitha's Poes Garden home, tying the loose ends.

The compulsions for the PMK and MGR-ADMK have been purely local or personal. With an assembly election due, the PMK has a better bargaining chance with the AIADMK than the ruling DMK, which helms the NDA in Tamil Nadu. The DMK and PMK share the same strongholds in the northern districts, where the former would not like to give away more seats to an ally. The AIADMK does not have much to lose in the region as long as it ensures the DMK loses as many seats as possible.

The MGR-ADMK is upset over the denial of a ministerial berth for Thirunavukkarasu, whom aides address as a 'minister' 10 years after he ceased to be one in the state. The party feels Vajpayee and the BJP have been using the DMK's approval as an excuse. Conversely, the DMK has been ignoring his legitimate claims and the party has stopped complaining since. Thirunavukkarasu completed negotiations with the AIADMK, to return to the party-fold for the third time, with the rank of senior deputy general secretary, with all powers.

As part of the deal, the PMK has promised not to stake claim for a share in power in Tamil Nadu, should the alliance win the assembly election. The party, however, wants a share in Pondicherry, where near simultaneous elections are due.

PMK founder Dr S Ramadoss has announced that the party hopes to head the government in the Union territory after next year's assembly election and in Tamil Nadu five years hence. The strategy thus involves the PMK helping the AIADMK for now, to finish off the DMK challenge, and then work out its ways.

However, Dr Ramadoss is keen on the party retaining two ministerial berths at the Centre. There is pressure from within the party to stake a larger claim to seats in the assembly election. Sources do not rule out a last-minute change of mind if the BJP-NDA tightens a few screws at the right time.

What has added credibility to the proposals, going beyond the Tamil Nadu context, is the seriousness with which Congress president Sonia Gandhi is said to be considering them. Jayalalitha is reported to have sent word to Sonia, through a middle-level aide who is a Congress MP from the state. Sonia has been holding consultations with Tamil Maanila Congress founder G K Moopanar, whose party has also been assigned a role in the combine, though only in the Tamil Nadu context.

The AIADMK is keen on putting together a formidable alliance against the DMK-led NDA for the assembly election. While the TMC may not have problems going along with the Congress into this camp, the former has been insisting on a share in power, which the AIADMK is loathe.

Simultaneously, Moopanar has expressed reservations about appearing on the side of parties identified with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, given the memory of the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.

The Congress has moved away from total opposition to ambiguity. There are sections within the state Congress that feel strongly about the party aligning with the PMK. This, they say, will show up the Congress and even Sonia as "selfish and time-serving and embarrass the memory of Rajiv, who all of us cherish so dearly."

While no decisions seem to have been taken, given the fluidity of the situation at the national level, Moopanar is once again in Delhi, to meet Sonia -- for the third time in two weeks. He is said to be keen on a coalition government in the state but may be persuaded to give it up, if it would be in the larger interests of the Congress and the Nehru family. Alternatively, he has proposed a Third Front in Tamil Nadu, with the Congress joining the company of smaller parties with casteist images. He also has an open invitation from the DMK and the NDA, on his terms, without upsetting the equilibrium.

The DMK -- and even the BJP -- appear to have given up on the PMK, though they have left it to Dr Ramadoss to decide. No one in the alliance is upset over the possible parting of ways and the DMK is hopeful of weaning away the anti-Vanniar Dalit Panthers from the emerging AIADMK-TMC combine, to offset a possible vote-loss, should the PMK cross over.

The Congress is moving cautiously, given the national implications where Sonia's leadership could not be seen as overly ambitious or rocking the boat without providing an alternative. That was the Congress end-game after the Vajpayee government was voted out in April 1999.

While no alternative seems to be in sight, the party is said to have been encouraged by the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party joining the Opposition walkout in Parliament, demanding the resignation of Union ministers, though for its reasons.

The Ayodhya issue may have provided the timing, but the Congress is said to be keen on re-inventing the secular front at the national level. At the same time, the party is aware of the poaching that the NDA could attempt, targeting the Congress directly, if the Vajpayee government is sought to be rocked.

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