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Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!

Cassandra, in Greek mythology, was the seer who foresaw the fall of Troy to the invading Greeks; unfortunately she was cursed by Apollo so that nobody believed her. We know what happened thereafter: the oh-so-innocent Trojan horse, the sacking of Troy. I feel quite like Cassandra when I suggest that the recent hyperactivity regarding Jammu and Kashmir amounts to nothing more than a Trojan horse. It is not in India's best interest.

I was quite uneasy about the Lahore process, and I said so -- one of the few columnists in the Indian media who was not beside himself with joy at how we were going to be One Big Happy Subcontinental Family any minute now. I feel a sense of déjà vu now -- once again India's ever-gullible 'leaders' are being manipulated by the marketing-savvy Pakistanis, as well as the ever-vigilant-for-their-own-interests Americans and other such luminaries.

The main reason for my concern is the following -- the alacrity with which various and sundry people have jumped on the bandwagon. As soon as the separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen announced a 'ceasefire' and willingness to talk about the 'aspirations of the Kashmiri people', here is the list of those who endorsed it with great enthusiasm:

· The Pakistani government

· The All-Party Hurriyat Conference

· The Americans

· The Nehruvian Stalinists in the English language media

· The Chinese (well, to be precise, they haven't yet, but you can expect it soon)

An exercise for the reader -- what do these people have in common? The answer -- none has India's interests at heart. The Pakistanis wish to harm India at all costs, as demonstrated most recently by their remote-controlled Deendar Anjuman group fomenting communal trouble. The Hurriyat is an American creation with no grass-roots support. The Americans are playing their version of the Great Game, looking for a toe-hold in the Himalayas.

The Nehruvian Stalinists in the media have been editorialising vigorously in favor of these talks. This is perhaps the surest sign of danger and idiocy; for as Swapan Dasgupta commented recently in India Today, these are the same worthies who have just been bowled over by General Pervez Musharraf's charm offensive. Their fulsome praise for the dictator - just because he invited them to Pakistan and wined and dined them -- has been particularly offensive.

Furthermore, certain Indian newspapers -- you know which they are -- are practically mouthpieces for the Chinese government. The Chinese, of course, are continuing their 'contain-India' campaign on all fronts. I am convinced for instance that the recent attacks on Christians in India, which got the nation such negative publicity, were thought up by the clever Chinese as a counterweight to the positive publicity India gained during the successful Clinton visit.

It is simple logic that if all these groups, not exactly India's best friends, are happy about this activity, then it must be the case that it is not a particularly good thing for India.

I also happened to read a piece by Ayaz Amir in the Pakistani newspaper, Dawn. This gentleman, an unusually thoughtful Pakistani commentator, said quite cogently why these talks were a brilliant diversionary maneuver for them. Conceding that the entire Kargil offensive had given Pakistan a bad name, he suggested that ongoing terrorism in J&K, masked by the charade of tasks, are their most effective weapon.

Amir is right. American fears about Pakistan being a breeding ground for terrorism have generally replaced the 'the-Indian-subcontinent-is-the-most-dangerous-nuclear-flashpoint-in-the-world' mantra popularised by the odious Madeleine Albright. However the 'flashpoint' view is attempting a comeback, most recently in the form of an essay by Congressman David Bonior mouthing Pakistan-friendly sentiments in the Washington Post

It is indeed most effective for Pakistan to continue to send its terrorists into India and keep J&K on the boil, while appearing to be sincere about talks. Killing two birds with one stone for it makes them look reasonable, and also takes the spotlight away from their cross-border terrorism. Musharraf must have hated the recent long article on 'Terrorism Universities' (as the author called Muslim fundamentalist madrasas) in the Sunday New York Times.

Pakistan needs some image-building in the wake of its saber-rattling; the fact that it is, yet again, a military dictatorship; and the Clintonian tongue-lashing it received to its chagrin earlier this year.

India's counter-tactic should be to make soothing noises about talking to the separatists and then to make a charade of such talks, including:

· Being completely clear internally about making no concessions whatsoever

· Not relaxing its security activities one iota

· Following a divide-and-conquer tactic -- speak only to the Hizbul Mujahideen, however much noise the All-Party Hurriyat makes, for instance, about joining in the talks

· Avoiding including Pakistan in the talks

· Insisting on the talks being in the framework of the Indian Constitution

Let us not forget, after all, that the rights of the terrorist and the insurgent are no greater than the rights of the average citizen. These separatists have been party to the savage ethnic cleansing of Kashmir Pandits from the valley; they have allowed the massacre of quite a few people, including Sikhs and Shia Muslims; they are morally responsible for the recent killing of Buddhist lamas in Ladakh.

None of the separatists in J&K are particularly cuddly. Giving in to their demands is the moral equivalent of giving into the demands of George Speight in Fiji -- a demonstration that a group of armed thugs can dictate terms based strictly on their ability to kill. The Indian government should be firm and resolute, and clear about the limits of the talks. For instance, the framework of the Constitution, I suggest, must be a non-negotiable condition.

In the final analysis, Pakistanis and their terrorists really don't care about the people of Jammu and Kashmir. They are merely pawns in this chess game. The Pakistanis want to make the Two Nation Theory true. And they want the land in J&K because they are worried about the Indus being in Indian hands and their being downstream. This is a reasonable worry. India should similarly be worried about the source of the Brahmaputra and the Ganges being in Chinese hands -- yet another reason to push for Tibetan independence.

All of the Indian negotiators have to keep in mind the fact that conceding J&K to the Pakistanis or their proxies is a no-win situation for India. If Pakistan gains control over J&K, they will simply turn their attention to other parts of India, for instance Hyderabad, the northeast, etc. It is best to keep them also focused on J&K, their resources also tied down there.

One of the factors to be considered is that, all said and done, the Hijbul Mujahideen and other indigenous groups of people originally from J&K are only marginally involved in terrorism there. Most of it is perpetrated by Pakistanis and their mercenary Afghan, Arab and other Islamic terrorists, possibly funded by the Saudis and China -- for example the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (nee Harkat-ul-Ansar). The Hijbul Mujahideen don't really count.

Now, it will be most interesting to see how the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, etc. react to these palavers. My suspicion is that they will cut down on terrorism in J&K for the moment, as their masters the Pakistanis would like to get this grand talks-shindig off the ground, as mentioned above, to remove the spotlight from their terrorist activities.

I must admit, though, that in the interest of the Indian government to act statesman-like and indulge in some harmless jaw-boning and theatrics before Prime Minister Vajpayee goes to the US and addresses the US legislature. No doubt this has entered into the calculations of the Indian side. The thing to worry about is to be clear about what is for strictly cosmetic, propaganda purposes, and what is in fact on the negotiating table. Alas, our guys are no champions at negotiations. As I keep suggesting, these foreign office folks need to be trained in game theory.

Postscript

There is considerable evidence now that the attacks on Christians in India, which got huge international headlines and created such debate in the 'secular' 'progressive' media, were perpetrated by Pakistan. Why, then, aren't Dan Burton and Dana Rohrabacher in the US Congress now calling for Pakistan to be named a rogue state for attacking Christians? Why is the Pope so silent? Why isn't he summoning Musharraf to Rome to apologise to him?

Why is the Indian media so quiet? Those who had decided, with no evidence, that 'Hindu fundamentalists' (despite the fact that the term itself is an oxymoron) were doing the damage, are now thunderously silent about the apparent fact that a Pakistani Muslim outfit seems to have been doing all this. Why? I'll tell you -- the 'secular' 'progressives' are unabashed hypocrites, that's why. I admire their chutzpah and thick skin.

Post-post script

In yet another example of craven kowtowing, the UN has snubbed His Holiness the Dalai Lama by not inviting him to the UN Millennium World Peace Summit, August 28 to 31 in New York. According to UN spokesman Fred Eckhard, His Holiness was left off the list 'for fear that his presence would draw a strong protest from China.' That is, the Chinese didn't even protest, it was self-flagellation by the UN! Shame on you, UN!

Over 1,000 religious people were invited, but not the Dalai Lama, possibly the most spiritual human being on earth. If you believe this was wrong, please feel free to write to His Excellency Mr. Kofi Annan, Secretary General, UN, at kannan@unitednations.org and ecu@un.org

Also please copy Mr Bawa Jain, organiser of the Summit,
at info@millenniumpeacesummit.org

Rajeev Srinivasan