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The gold medal in Uttar Pradesh

Milkha Singh in 1964. P T Usha in 1984. Will it be Sonia Gandhi or Mulayam Singh Yadav in 1999? What's the connection? Simple: both the Flying Sikh and the Kerala Express missed an Olympic bronze by (quite literally) a breath. How does that link up with the two politicians?

Well, there is no greater democratic exercise than an Indian general election, justly described as the Olympics of all polls. And giant Uttar Pradesh, with its 85 constituencies, is the biggest prize of all. The Congress, for all its boasts, is far too out of shape to aim at the gold and the silver medals. It can, however, put up quite a race for the bronze.

Before going on, let me state that the gold medal in Uttar Pradesh will almost certainly go the BJP and the silver to the Bahujan Samaj Party. The BJP, which won roughly 39% of the votes in 1998, won't get over 35%. That isn't a cataclysmic fall, but the party would be wise to go in for a bout of self-examination. The Bahujan Samaj Party is in line for 25% of the vote -- well short off the BJP, but a slight increase of two or three percentage points over 1998.

And so let us come to the contestants for the bronze -- the Congress and the Samajwadi Party. Neither seriously expects to wrench back voters who have declared their loyalties to the BJP or the BSP. Basically, the battle between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party boils down to a fight for Muslim votes.

Muslims traditionally backed the Congress, but this changed after the Ayodhya incident in 1992 convinced them the Congress could not -- or would not -- protect their interests. In every subsequent election, this section stood by Mulayam Singh Yadav. It was chiefly because of them that the Samajwadi Party won a remarkable 28% of the vote in 1998.

But they are now unhappy with Mulayam Singh Yadav. They believe he was the chief obstacle to Sonia Gandhi forming a government after the fall of the Vajpayee ministry. And this paved the way for fresh election which means the BJP shall return with an enhanced majority -- making Mulayam Singh Yadav's voters very unhappy indeed. The Congress, perceiving this, believes it can win them back.

Up to a point, I agree; in 1998, the party couldnąt win a single seat in Uttar Pradesh (something that has happened only in the post-Emergency, anti-Congress wave of 1977). It certainly won't repeat that horrible performance. But I totally disagree with the Congress's boasts of sweeping Uttar Pradesh. That party's share of votes has shrunk over the past decade, touching a measly seven per cent in 1998. The Congress may slice away a large chunk of Mulayam Singh Yadav's pie, but it certainly won't get the whole dish. Even if the Congress manages to double its votes, that still puts Sonia Gandhi & Co well behind both the BJP and the BSP.

India doesn't have a system of proportional representation, so percentages don't tell us how many seats the Congress shall win. Actually, the party is a serious contender in just 18 of the 85 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. Its ally, Ajit Singh, claims a degree of influence in three more. It is highly unlikely the Congress and Ajit Singh shall win all 21; realistically, the alliance might win half -- meaning 10 to 12 seats.

Moving on to other parties, I think the Bahujan Samaj Party will win something like 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh -- an excellent performance given that just five BSP candidates were elected last time from India as a whole! Finally, the BJP, which won 57 seats from Uttar Pradesh last time, is set to lose at least half a dozen -- which still leaves it with the vast majority.

Where does that leave the Samajwadi Party? Nobody believes it can retain all the 20 seats won in 1998. Once the chief opponent to the BJP -- a role seemingly surrendered to the Bahujan Samaj Party -- the Samajwadi Party is reduced to fighting for the bronze.

But that is little comfort to the Congress. Winning Uttar Pradesh is crucial to any party entertaining hopes of ruling India. With the Bahujan Samaj Party inching upward, it is tough to see any role for the Congress except as a supporting actor. But that is a story for another day -- all we need to know right now is that the Congress won't make up losses in the South and the West by gaining in Uttar Pradesh.

T V R Shenoy