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Voters keep their fingers crossed

How will the polls go?" members of the Pakistani delegation to the Asian Parliamentarian Conference asked me at Dhaka a few days ago. My reply was: "Thanks to you, the Bharatiya Janata Party will be back in power." They laughed but did not contradict me. One of them said in private: whatever Pakistan did, it was done "unwittingly."

There is no doubt that the Kargil operation has helped the BJP immensely. It has exploited it to the hilt. While saying repeatedly that it will not be politicised, the party had no other issue to project except Kargil. Of course, the Congress too has made its contribution; raising such questions as would lessen the credit of ousting the intruders. Had the party been more politic and given a call to the nation to hail the ''victory,'' it would have taken the wind out of the BJP sails. After that it should have raised doubts about the Vajpayee government's non-performance. Its every act of omission and commission has been swamped by the Kargil operation.

The euphoria over Kargil, seen in the earlier rounds of polling, has now abated. One sees a revival of sorts of the Congress. The party looks like improving its position in the Lok Sabha. Expectations from Maharashtra and Karnataka have gone awry. Sharad Pawar did the damage in the first and the Janata Dal split in the second, former prime minister Deve Gowda taking away some of the votes from the Congress by having the same plank. Still Sonia Gandhi is retrieving the ground, although her daughter, Priyanka, is going down with people better.

The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has sensed that the Congress is lagging behind. Otherwise, the CPI (M)'s plea for the front does not make sense. It has no face to talk about it because the party has itself murdered the third option. Had the CPI (M) supported the front, the combined force would have fought elections as an alternative to the BJP and the Congress. When the party announced its support to the Congress -- it caused embarrassment in Kerala -- it made it clear to the nation that it had to choose between the two parties: the Congress and the BJP. The CPI (M) tried to polarise the country when there is nothing to choose between the two.

The constituents of the third front have had no option except to contest as separate entities in the states. This has not been bad. Still the damage that the splitting of the anti-BJP and the anti-Congress vote would cause would have been averted. There would have been at least adjustment of seats. The process may, however, reverse after the polls because various regional parties propose to come together on a single platform so as to be a viable force.

The change of tactics by the CPI (M) is because it has seen straws in the wind. West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu is once again contemplating to be a candidate for the prime ministership if the non-BJP and the non-Congress parties get somewhere around 200 or 210 seats. Basu is a good man but the young Turks in the politburo have damaged his image through their immature politics.

It seems that this time a couple of people's candidates may also make it to the Lok Sabha. They are supported by the human rights activists, Gandhians, leaders of the Sarva Seva Sangh and some others. In early August, some 75 people, representing different social movements in the country, came together at Sevagram, Mahatma Gandhi's ashram, to hark back to the values of secularism, simplicity and selflessness. It was felt that social movements must pool their efforts to intervene politically.

Since there was not much time available between the conference and the elections, only three candidates have been picked up for the Lok Sabha -- one each from Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Assam. One assembly candidate is from Sevagram. A bigger conclave will be held sometime in December to launch a political party, integrating grassroots movements. The objective is to create a front of honest and committed people to fight professional politicians.

The BJP has said that it will win a majority on its own. How and from where will it get 95 more seats? In fact, if there is no let-up in the revival of the Congress, the BJP's strength of 181 in the dissolved House may not increase much. It can even go down.

One thing about the combinations of convenience is that they do not last long. Since there is nothing like ideology to bind any party to either the BJP or the Congress, every entity, however small feels independent. It will act not on the basis of alliance but what is in its own interests. Even otherwise, the lines of loyalty have got so blurred in the current election that old Congressmen and RSS-inclined BJP members have felt no hesitation in changing colours overnight. They have not only joined each other's camp but have gone over to other parties for a ticket to contest.

Against this backdrop, it is difficult to say which of the allies of the two parties will stay with either of them after the polls. The BJP has at least some respect for its allies because it says that it will include them in the government even if it wins a majority on its own. The Congress has shown contempt for the allies. Sonia Gandhi says repeatedly that her party will not enter into coalition with anybody and will form the government on its own. She forgets the mess she created after the fall of the BJP-led government.

Sonia Gandhi would have gained more support if she had placed real issues before the public. "Failure" at Kargil or sugar from Pakistan does not impress people. They have a feeling that they have won the war. What they would have liked to hear from her is the Congress programme to provide basic facilities like water, roads or schools. Indira Gandhi swept the polls on the promise of ousting poverty. Something like that could have attracted the electorate provided she had also assured them that she would not dishonour the promise like her mother-in-law did.

Some opposition leaders have pooh-poohed her contribution. This is not correct. She has united the Congress and made it a viable alternative to the forces which pander to communal elements. She should have stopped at that and remained the Congress president. She should not have made persons like Sharad Pawar and P A Sangma quit the Congress when they rightly challenged her right to be the prime minister.

Hers is not the only colourless campaign. Even Vajpayee has little to say except Kargil. In any case, the campaign has been so devoid of issues that the electorate does not know whom to choose and vote for what. That may explain the 41 per cent turnout in the cities. The derogatory language both the Congress and the BJP functionaries have used against each other's leaders has turned the electioneering into a street brawl.

I have covered most elections after independence. Never before was the standard so low and vulgar. This deterioration of standards has also got reflected in the TV debates. There were more clever questions and answers than serious analysis or debate. The two persons who came out well are Arun Jaitely from the BJP and Jayaram Ramesh from the Congress. They have maintained norms. Others have put their foot in the mouth whenever they have opened it.

The real debasement is that of politicians. They have nothing to say except to repeat old shibboleths. They know that no single party will get a majority. But they hope that there will not be another mid-term election soon. They keep their fingers crossed.

Kuldip Nayar