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The Congress: sinking with Sonia

Let me begin by saluting the Supreme Court for removing the ill-advised Election Commission ban on surveys and exit-polls, described by their Lordships as ''without merit.'' In any case, leaks were inevitable given a gap of over a month between the first phase of polling and the last. I know that for a fact, since I myself was the recipient of data from the first two phases of polling.

But first turn to the significance of the 269 constituencies that voted in the first two phases. In 1998, these seats were the saving grace for the Congress and its allies. (When I say 'allies', I refer to those parties which are its partners today no matter what happened in 1998.)

In Kerala, the Congress-led alliance won 11 seats. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress got nothing, but the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam got 18 and the Communist Party of India got one. In Karnataka, the Congress tally was nine. In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress won 22 and the CPI-CPI-M duo got three; in addition, a Telugu Desam member defected to the Congress -- raising the alliance's tally to 26. In Maharashtra, the understanding forged by Sharad Pawar won 37 seats, with the Congress accounting for 33 of these. The party won seven in Gujarat, 10 in Madhya Pradesh, three in Haryana, and just one in Delhi. There were 18 Congress members from Rajasthan, augmented by one when Buta Singh rejoined the party. Finally, it won nothing in Punjab.

That means the Congress and its allies are defending 133 seats, almost half of the 269 constituencies that have already voted. If you take the Congress tally exclusively, it amounts to 113 -- the vast majority of the party's tally of 141 in the 12th Lok Sabha. How is the Congress faring in 1999?

In Punjab, the Congress is expected to win at least four seats. In Delhi, the party could double its tally -- from one to two. In Gujarat, the Congress tally might rise from seven to twelve. In Madhya Pradesh, it is expected to rise from 10 seats to 16. So Punjab, Delhi, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh could give the Congress 16 seats more than in 1998.

But the Congress-led alliance is expected to lose in other states. It could yield six in Rajasthan, 10 in Andhra Pradesh, eight in Tamil Nadu (all AIADMK and Communist seats), and a whopping 20 in Maharashtra. Add that up and it comes to 44. The Congress alliance wins 16 additional seats and it loses 44 -- a net loss of 28. Can it make up the deficit elsewhere?

The Congress failed to win any of Uttar Pradesh's 85 seats in 1998. In Bihar, the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal combine got 22 of the 54 seats. The party couldn't win more than five in Orissa, and just one in West Bengal (which has 42 constituencies). Assam accounted for 12, and the rest of the Northeast brought in five.

The Congress is bound to improve in Uttar Pradesh. But there it is a four-way contest between the BJP, the Congress, the Samajwadi Party, and the Bahujan Samaj Party. With two other parties eating into the non-BJP vote, the Congress, realistically speaking, doesn't expect more than 10 seats.

These victories will be offset by losses in Bihar and the Northeast. In West Bengal, the anti-Communist votes have migrated to the BJP-Trinamul Congress alliance. Putting them all together -- Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam and the rest of the Northeast -- the Congress doesn't expect more than 45.

What is the figure for India as a whole? As noted, the Congress-led alliance (not just Sonia Gandhi's party) is expected to lose about 30 of the 133 seats it won in 1998. It could win 50 (or less) in the rest of India. That adds up to about 150 seats in the 13th Lok Sabha.

Can the Congress-led alliance reach the halfway mark? The Left Front will contribute something from Kerala, West Bengal, and Tripura. The Deve Gowda faction of the Janata Dal might have a seat, and so too the Tamil Maanila Congress. But that still leaves Sonia Gandhi with less than 200 members in a House of 543.

To put that into perspective, the BJP alone could cross 200, and the BJP-led coalition would be nudging 300. (If anybody is keeping track, the remaining seats are expected to go to the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, Sharad Pawar's rebels, and some others.)

Frankly, nobody doubts Atal Bihari Vajpayee shall return as prime minister with an enhanced mandate. The only speculation is whether Sonia Gandhi's Congress can get even 141, the performance of the Congress at its nadir under Narasimha Rao!

T V R Shenoy