ELECTION 99
COLUMNISTS
DIARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
ELECTIONS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ARCHIVES

Search Rediff

Pricking the democratic balloon

What are the sweetest words that anyone can hear? Well, it's nice to hear someone greeting you on a birthday, a festival, or some such occasion? But the best by far is to hear yourself say, ''I told you so!'' So permit me to quote what I wrote in this column as far back as June:

''As President Kennedy ruminated in the wake of the Bay of Pigs debacle, 'Victory has a thousand fathers, defeat is an orphan.' Very true, except that the Pakistan Army is trying to prove that the father of the 'orphan' -- the Kargil crisis -- is actually Nawaz Sharief.''

To which I added:

''The soldiers have been out for his head ever since last October when he forced General Jahangir Karamat out of office, and installed Pervez Musharraf as army chief of staff over the heads of six senior commanders. Students of history should note that the last Pakistani prime minister to do such a thing was Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. He hand-picked Zia ul-Haq because he thought the man would be pliable. And everyone knows just how the protege proved his gratitude. So it was a bad omen when Nawaz Sharief too tried his hand at the fine art of supersession.''

I must admit, however, that I never expected Nawaz Sharief to supersede not one, but two chiefs of staff. And I ended by writing:

''But shed no tears for the prime minister of Pakistan, a man who has dug his own grave. He could have reined in the generals -- if not before the Kargil crisis began, then afterwards at least. Instead, he has tried to justify it. By identifying himself so closely with what is happening in Kargil, he has done half the work of the generals for them. How much longer shall it be before they step in to complete the job?''

Well, that last question has certainly been answered. Obviously, at the moment, we have no idea whether this coup shall be successful. But one thing is certain: all that talk of Nawaz Sharief being the most powerful prime minister in Pakistani history now belongs to the trashcan. It has been confirmed, if such proof was ever required, that the sole authority that counts in Pakistan is the Pakistani Army.

Back in June, Defence Minister George Fernandes mentioned the possibility that the Kargil operation had begun without Nawaz Sharief being informed about the scope and ramifications of the invasion. This drew loud protests from some, not least the Congress spokesman. Recordings of a conversation between two Pakistani Army commanders were dismissed as doctored evidence.

Is anyone still sniggering today? It is possible, of course, that the Pakistani Army shall beat a retreat under American pressure. But that is really immaterial; even if the United States provides a guard of honour to escort Nawaz Sharief back to power, will he ever again exercise the authority he enjoyed at his peak?

It is open to question, however, just how much influence the US can, or will, bring to bear on the generals in Islamabad. When Nawaz Sharief rushed off to Washington to negotiate the retreat from Kargil, the heads of the army were conspicuously absent from the delegation. According to several informed accounts, General Musharraf was tempted to carry on the blood-letting for some time yet. Will he really be ready to back off today when the stakes for him personally are so much higher?

Looking at it from an Indian perspective, I don't see any particular reason to be concerned. I do not believe that the so-called ''democratic'' governments in Pakistan were any friendlier toward us than the military dictatorships. Put the army on a state of high alert by all means, but also remember that such is the normal state of affairs on the border with Pakistan.

Is it possible that the Pakistani generals shall try and stir up trouble with India? Well, that is always a possibility, but I am not sure that a bankrupt Pakistan is in any position to wage war.

There is one final point: the rank bad timing demonstrated by the Pakistani generals. Can you imagine a greater contrast between India and Pakistan right now? On the evening of October 12, the generals take over in Pakistan. And the very next morning, Atal Bihari Vajpayee is sworn in as prime minister after the greatest democratic exercise in the world.

And lest I forget: the Congress spent a lot of time trying to prove that the Vajpayee ministry had lost the war in Kargil. The anger of the Pakistani Army demonstrates just who lost. But are Sonia Gandhi and Kapil Sibal listening?

T V R Shenoy