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Analyst calls for 'excellent' second-strike capability

Mrityunjay Bose in Bombay

India needs to have an "excellent" second-strike capability since it has vowed never to be the first to use nuclear weapons, defence analyst K Subramanyam said.

"India should be able to strike after any nuclear attack... that is the core of deterrence," he said while giving a lecture on 'nuclear doctrine for India' at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in north-east Bombay to commemorate the silver jubilee of the first nuclear test at Pokhran in May 1974.

Subramanyam, a former bureaucrat and defence writer of repute, said a second strike capability will enable India to survive an attack. "A minimum credible nuclear deterrent and no-first-use ought to have a second strike capability," he said.

Among the scientists and technocrats who attended the lecture were the chief designers of the Pokhran II nuclear tests -- Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Rajgopal Chidambaram and BARC Director Anil Kakodkar.

Though Pakistan, which also conducted nuclear tests, has refused to abjure first use of the weapons, the chances of it attacking India are remote because of its geography, which makes important cities like Lahore and the entire Punjab province vulnerable, Subramanyam noted.

But because of the scenario in the sub-continent and the Chinese nuclear capability, it is necessary to conduct more nuclear tests and establish a minimum credible deterrent, he said.

"We don't want to use weapons of mass destruction," he said, but added that their existence gives the deterrence. "Nobody will dare to attack India," he said, referring to NATO's aggression on Yugoslavia. "If Yugoslavia had a couple of nuclear weapons, the United States and NATO would not have dared to bomb Yugoslavia," he felt.

Asked if the US could attack India also at some stage in the future, Subrahmanyam felt it would not dare to do so as it has important economic assets in the neighbourhood.

Subrahmanyam said the United Nations, an institution to provide the rule of international law and maintain peace, has collapsed. NATO has emerged stronger and launched an attack on Yugoslavia. "The Yugoslavs are not angels... They might have done something wrong, but this does not mean any other country has the right to attack them," he argued.

He said that the US and its allies have emerged stronger, which is evident from the last 56 days of bombing. The NATO forces have suffered only two casualties and lost two aircraft. "They (the US) have been asking for common standards in every aspect except strategic concepts," he said.

Talking about the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Subrahmanyam said there is no need to sign it in a hurry. "Nations who have sponsored the move have not ratified it," he said.

Talking about the world order, he said the world can now be divided into five group of countries -- nuclear-weapon states, their allies, protected countries, countries under unilateral protection and the countries of the Indian subcontinent.

UNI

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