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TN may pay the price for checking population

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

Is there a price to be paid for checking population growth rate? If a unanimous resolution passed by the Tamil Nadu assembly last week is any indication, states that have recorded lower growth rates in their populations may have their representation in Parliament slashed. So may be the number of seats in their respective state assemblies.

Tamil Nadu is, of course, in the list, and so will be neighbouring Kerala. The other two south Indian states, namely, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, too have lesser population growth rates in recent decades, compared to their counterparts in the north, the `Hindi heartland' to be precise. According to available Census figures even the eastern and north-eastern states have recorded comparative lower population growth rates, against states like Madhya Pradesh, where the figure has actually increased, going by the 1991 Census figures.

Article 81 of the Constitution was amended over a decade back to provide for continuity in the number of Lok Sabha seats allotted to each state, based on population. Though the population has increased across the board in all the states and Union territories in the country, there have been shifts and changes in the growth pattern. Unaffected by the controversial nasbandi programme of the Emergency era, the southern states continued with their population control measures. The north, a prolific producer even otherwise, topped the list with a vengeance, after `forced sterilisation' of the mid-Seventies left a very bad taste in the mouth.

The delimitation of the Lok Sabha constituencies, based on the latest population figures, is due in the next decade. The amended Article 81 says that delimitation of constituencies, which also included increasing or decreasing their numbers in individual states based on growth rates, should be undertaken after the first Census figures for the new millennium became available.

The next Census is due in the year 2001, and the final figures will be available, maybe a year or two later.

Tamil Nadu's case was put forth in advance of this event by Chief Minister M Karunanidhi in the state assembly. As he pointed out, the state has already paid the price for cutting down on its population growth rate in the past. The number of Lok Sabha seats in the state came down to 39 for the 1967 elections, from 41 for the Lok Sabha polls five years earlier. The figure would have been 40, if only the calculations based on the population figures had crossed the 39.50-mark, instead of 39.47, which was the actual figure.

The state had argued for increasing the number of assembly segments in each Lok Sabha constituency to seven, from the existing six. The case was pleaded through a resolution tabled in the Lok Sabha in 1975, when again the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham was the ruling party in Tamil Nadu. Then prime minister Indira Gandhi appreciated the state's case, but nothing came of it, Karunanidhi recalled. Against this, the Centre has not taken up its recent request relating to delimitation seriously. The state government's letter of June last year remains unanswered, he added.

As the chief minister pointed out, the population growth rate in Tamil Nadu has gone down from 1.63 per cent to 1.39 per cent, between the Census figures for 1981 and 1991. Against this, for instance, the figure had actually gone up for some states. In Madhya Pradesh, for instance, the growth rate had increased from 2.27 per cent to 2.37 per cent between the 1981 and 1991 Census. As may be noted even the original 2.27 per cent growth rate was much higher than those prevailing in states like Tamil Nadu.

The chief minister attributed the fall in the growth rate of the state's population to the Dravidian movement's 'self-respect marriages', wherein political leaders openly advised the newly-weds against having a large family. But that's only partly true. The higher literacy rate in the state, attributed partly to the free education and free noon meals scheme, first introduced by the Congress state government under the late K Kamaraj in the mid-fifties, and followed up by All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham founder M G Ramachandran through his nutritious noon meal scheme when he was chief minister, has increased the literacy rate in the state. This, and also the fast urbanisation, have contributed greatly to general awareness and fall in population growth rate.

The predicament of the Tamil Nadu politician is understandable. In the days of coalition politics at the national level, he will have lesser leverage and bargaining power if the number of Lok Sabha seats in the state is reduced. Simultaneously, the seats in the states with higher growth rates of their population would have increased. Given the political equations that contribute to developmental programmes being allotted to individual states, a fall in the number of Lok Sabha seats can also affect states like Tamil Nadu, adversely, in more ways than one.

Even politically, Tamil Nadu, and other states like it stand to lose their leverage, jointly and severally. The 'Hindi heartland', for instance, has always recorded higher growth rates than their southern counterparts. They also cover a larger area and larger population, even otherwise. There is a general continuity of culture, language and habits among their population, with the result their general electoral behaviour has remained predictable -- and common. The infant Janata Party, for instance, could win the post-Emergency 1977 general elections just by sweeping the `Hindi heartland', even while the south voted the Congress.

It is this aspect that seems to bother political parties like the DMK, AIADMK, Tamil Maanila Congress and others in the state. The assembly resolution, piloted by the chief minister, was welcomed even by the AIADMK rivals in a rare gesture of unanimity. But what went unmentioned was their common anxiety that states like Tamil Nadu and regions like the south may lose all their politico-economic importance in the coming decades if the new Census figures of 2001 support the case for increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats in the north, and decreasing them in the south and maybe the east and north-east.

This simultaneous 'double-hit' would imply that you can rule India just with the votes of the 'Hindi heartland'. If a party or parties, national or regional, address the concerns of these states, they would have as much won a majority in the Lok Sabha, and formed a government at the Centre. It would also be the right recipe for a future government introducing the presidential form of government at the national-level, whereby choosing a political agenda appealing to the `Hindi heartland', an individual leader or political party could win hands down.

The Tamil Nadu government seemed to have become aware to such possibilities only late in the day. The original resolution tabled in the assembly on Friday last thus did not have any reference to other states. It only wanted the number of Lok Sabha seats for Tamil Nadu to be pegged at 39 for the next 50 years. But a change was introduced quickly on Monday. The new resolution thus wanted the Centre to "ensure that the number of seats in the Lok Sabha allotted to every state remains unchanged", and for all time to come. And the Tamil Nadu assembly wanted the Centre to introduce a constitutional amendment, accordingly.

It remains to be seen what other parties and states have to say on the subject. But the import of the Tamil Nadu assembly resolution would have it that states with a lower population growth rate in the last decade and next would follow the Tamil Nadu example, while others, particularly those in the north, will insist on a fresh delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies once Census 2001 comes up with its final figures.

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