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The Rediff Interview/ Dr Stephen Cohen

'The US does have important interests in both China and Pakistan that it is not going to sacrifice'

D r Stephen Cohen is an old India hand and friend. He is one person who knows and understands India, learning Hindi on the way, having studied it from the days of his doctorate thesis and becoming a specialist on the country. Today, as a senior fellow at The Brookings Institute, Washington DC, he is helping shape the United States government's policy towards India in the aftermath of the Pokhran blasts. Dr Cohen, who visits India almost every year, spoke with Amberish K Diwanji about the state of Indo-US relations today.

The Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks seem to have made little headway. Does this augur well for Indo-US relations?

There are two aspects about the Singh-Talbott talks that are surprising. First, that they have actually gone on for so long; second, that both sides are so quiet about the talks and its outcome. Because of the silence, we don't really know what is happening, but that is actually a good thing, because good diplomacy sometimes requires secrecy. Here we have two sides negotiating an agreement acceptable politically to both sides. It will have to be a deal that politicians on both sides have to sell to their people.

I don't focus on the talks themselves but on the situation after the talks. They have established a mechanism for our two countries to discuss divisions and to implement areas of agreements. Now we should go ahead to set up working groups to establish high level of political contacts, encourage other kinds of meetings such as Track 2 diplomacy, business contacts, etc.

What do you see as the crux of Indo-US problems?

One major problem is the thinness in the number of contacts between the people of the two countries, which is limited to select groups. We need more contacts between the people of the US and India. The NRI community is important in this regard, but they are still feeling their way about the US political system. However, one good aspect is the emerging contacts between businesses, with American businessmen interested in India and Indian businessmen interested in the US.

Again, US congressman Jim McDermott is scheduled to arrange a parliamentary meeting between Indians and Americans. It is important to have such bipartisan delegates from the major parties of both countries, with Republicans and Democrats from the US and the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, plus some of the other major parties, from India to foster an understanding of our respective positions.

One of the demands of the US is that India must sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Do you see this happening?

The BJP government in India is trying hard to build a consensus on CTBT. It is probably discussing it with the Congress party also to sense their likely reaction. Recently I read an article in an Indian newspaper that said that it really doesn't make a difference now whether India signs the CTBT. It will be a largely symbolic act.

India could sign since that would imply no technical loss. Or India might agree to adhere to the CTBT provided other countries like Russia, China, and the US agree to sign it. What we are witnessing here is the Pehle Aap syndrome. Still, adherence might be enough for the US to also sign the treaty and lift the sanctions imposed on India. However, India may insist that the US lift sanctions first and will sign later, the US demand may be just the opposite. This is a difficult part but not a vital aspect of the issue.

How would you describe Indo-US relations today?

Let us first look at Indo-US relations till the nuclear tests at Pokhran in May 1998. Earlier, the US pursued an imbalanced proliferation policy towards India. However, in March 1996, there were major policy changes and the US decided to have a more broadbased policy towards India. But sadly, it all came too late. By then, the ongoing talks on the CTBT had pushed India into a corner, and there was no way anyone could have stopped it. Diplomatic talks often acquire a momentum of their own and this is what happened at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva; it moved along and India could not figure how to get over the CTBT.

I would say that after the policy review the US views were move balanced. Then came the nuclear tests that pushed the US back to considering its basic rules. Here lies the rub. Right now both sides are investing a lot of their time, money and energy into the talks, which no doubt are important. But if there is not much progress, then the US may just feel that there is too much effort being wasted for too little gains in terms of military, politics and business.

For the Indian perspective, I would add that today India has grabbed US attention. It is a bit like hitting someone with an iron bar. But if nothing comes out of the talks, then the entire effort at going nuclear will be lost.

Many in India feel that the US is closer to China and Pakistan.

It is not true that the US leans to China or Pakistan. I would say that both Indian and US diplomacies were inept when dealing with each other. India failed to make its concerns clear to the US. However, the US does have important interests in both China and Pakistan that it is not going to sacrifice for anyone else. Nor is the US going to undercut India.

What are the positive aspects about Indo-US ties?

One good feature at present is the growth in business relations. However, much of this growth is a feature of India's economy opening up even further. I personally feel that there is no option for India but to liberate. You walk out of this hotel and you see slums on the roads that are far worse than the slums I saw on my first visit to India in 1964. The crowds are more in the cities because there are no jobs in the villages. You see people living alongside railway tracks in Calcutta.

You appear pessimistic about the lot of the Indian poor.

I think the plight of the poor is getting worse. There needs to be a greater commitment to eradicate poverty, and to meet the basic needs of the poor. India needs a strategy to help economic growth. I don't think that even today there is a strong enough commitment to eradicate the worst aspects of poverty. All this needs is minimum shelter, food, schools, making it a crime to allow children to work.

The fact that some parts of India and South Asia have done very well, such as Kerala and Sri Lanka which have provided a remarkable quality of life to their people shows that it is possible to provide the minimum needs of people. India today has half the world's poorest and you need economic policies to deal with that.

You have been visiting India so often, how does it feel?

Visiting India is like visiting another planet. India is a self-contained world with many layers in its society. My wife says it is the only country where you walk 100 metres down the road and you see more differences than if you walked three miles in another country. A lot keeps happening and it is a crowded country.

One aspect of the crowds is that Indians have great managerial skills. Indians can deal with people, can complete task and manage complex jobs quite easily. It comes from being part of such a huge, crowded country and this is a special quality and asset of the Indian people.

How do you view India in the South Asian context?

India dominates the region. It should do so by consensus rather than by power. I think the BJP understands this. India today appears like a great country dragged down by its relations with other countries. India has to find a way of dealing with Pakistan so as not to be dragged down by that country. Jaswant Singh has written a book ( Defending India) that I am reviewing. It is a good book. Singh criticises Nehru for his naivete to China and arrogance towards Pakistan. In this sense, the Gujral doctrine of friendship was quite relevant, something that even P V Narasimha Rao understood. Foreign policy and democracy are a mix of idealism and realism.

Indians feel that its image in the US is quite poor.

Frankly, I wouldn't worry too much about what others think, especially the US. As an Indian, I would be more worried about the opinion of China and Pakistan. In terms of image, India will get a much better image globally if it has better relations with its neighbours. But it would be better to focus on issues rather than its image. I believe that India has hired a PR firm in the US. I don't know about its success but you first need good policies, otherwise no PR firm can help.

Is India perceived as a major power in the US?

India is today recognised as the superpower in South Asia and a great power in the making. Every country in South Asia, save China, accepts India's dominant role. The southeast Asian countries are somewhat nervous about India, especially after New Delhi declared itself an Indian Ocean power and expanded its navy, but they are also more worried about China. Now these things have to be done diplomatically and India must establish close ties with the southeast Asian countries.

The India military has a weak power projection capability. It can airlift a few troops but this is limited.

What about the Kashmir problem?

I don't see the Kashmir dispute being resolved for at least another generation. It would be best to put disputes aside and develop other relations but Pakistan objects to this. They don't want Kashmir put aside. In fact after the Simla Agreement, Pakistan felt that Kashmir was being ignored. I guess today India and Pakistan need another Simla to resolve the issue and the solution is really quite obvious: convert the Line of Control into a border.

Kashmir is a very emotional issue in Pakistan. In India, it is a less emotive case. Just as Indian grieve over territory lost to China, Pakistan sees Kashmir. Added to that is the presence of Muslims, hence India must understand Pakistan anxiety.

The need of the hour is a bipartisan approach, an agreement that will survive a change of government, not a change that will change governments, in both countries. It is possible.

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