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A war without winners

A young officer was once heard talking to General Sherman, one of the heroes of the United States Civil War. How wonderful, he said enviously, it must have been to actually win glory on the battlefield. "Son!" said the grizzled old warrior, "War is hell, make no mistakes about that!" He might have added that a civil war is even worse; it is one of those conflicts where there are no winners, only losers.

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the rebellious Kalyan Singh are about to find out just how true that is. Working together, the party machinery and the former chief minister were a formidable force. In three successive Lok Sabha polls -- in 1991, in 1996, and in 1998 -- the BJP succeeded in winning over fifty of the eighty-five Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. Was it just a coincidence that the party did so badly in 1999, precisely when rumours began to be heard of a rift between the chief minister in Lucknow and the central leadership in Delhi?

I use the words 'central leadership' advisedly. Kalyan Singh has tried to make it out that this is a battle between the prime minister and himself. It is not. I am afraid that not a single senior leader in the BJP supports arrant indiscipline on the scale that Kalyan Singh indulges in. Nor will the party at large stand by anyone who acts so erratically or makes his bitterness so apparent -- while some Kalyan Singh supporters speak airily of bringing down the ministry in Lucknow, the majority of the Members of the Legislative Assembly seem reluctant to back their former leader.

That does not mean, however, that the BJP has escaped unharmed. The party's image of being disciplined has taken a savage hammering. Its attempt at 'social engineering', a process that has been going on for most of the past decade, has taken a beating. Like it or not, Kalyan Singh was the most prominent BJP leader in Uttar Pradesh to rise from the Other Backward Caste communities, and the party will find it very hard to replace him. A decade of work cannot be replicated so easily, definitely not before the next Vidhan Sabha polls.

But I still feel that it is Kalyan Singh who is the chief loser in this civil war. What are his options when you consider the future in the light of cold reason rather than a burst of emotion? Very little.

True, Mulayam Singh Yadav has been hugging him and saying some very flattering things. True, Laloo Prasad Yadav and certain others have been making noises about how an OBC leader has been unthroned thanks to a high-caste conspiracy. But to depend upon the good faith of such leaders is a fragile hope.

It might seem that an alliance between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh is a marriage made in heaven, something that will sweep the OBC vote in Uttar Pradesh. After all the defection of Sakshi Maharaj cost the BJP dearly in the general election; Kalyan Singh's loss, given that he is a greater leader, will be felt in equally greater proportion. (Although, of course, it could be argued that Sakshi Maharaj was working with Kalyan Singh's tacit support -- in other words, the former chief minister has done his worst, and can do no worse.)

But will Mulayam Singh Yadav risk losing his Muslim constituency by embracing Kalyan Singh? Especially after he has just announced his renewed determination to take up the Ayodhya issue? Somehow, I doubt that the Samajwadi Party would surrender its votebank so easily.

And there is one more factor. Kalyan Singh, by his own admission, found it hard to get along with Atal Bihari Vajpayee (a person so amiable that even opposition leaders find it hard to abuse him). Will he really be able to accept the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav?

If not the Samajwadi Party, then who? The Congress is a pale shadow of its former self, and it is still to forgive Kalyan Singh for so ruthlessly engineering the split in the party that led to the formation of the Loktantrik Congress. That leaves the Bahujan Samaj Party. And it is a well-known fact that Mayawati hates Kalyan Singh almost as much as she hates Mulayam Singh Yadav. The possibility of their allying is somewhat far-fetched.

So where does that leave the former chief minister? He can't paint himself as the sole leader of the OBCs; the various sub-castes are far too badly divided for that, with several sections turning to Mulayam Singh Yadav. He could try to reignite the Ayodhya issue, but will BJP voters support a BJP rebel?

Both the BJP and Kalyan Singh have suffered thanks to this civil war. But on the whole, I believe that it is the former chief minister who shall pay the heavier price.

T V R Shenoy