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No chances of a war breaking out: Experts

Tara Shankar Sahay in New Delhi

The Indian Air Force's shooting down of a Pakistani reconnaissance aircraft today over the Rann of Kutch in Gujarat will not lead to an all-out war between the two neighbours, defence analysts here feel.

A majority of experts this correspondent spoke to were of the opinion that India had served a warning to Pakistan that its terrorist activities in Kashmir and the North-East would not be tolerated.

Maj-Gen ( retd ) Afsir Karim had no doubt in his mind that there was a link between Pakistan's terrorist activities and the shooting down of the Pakistani plane by the Indian Air Force. He, however said, plane was clearly shot over Indian territory and as such was justifiable. ''India has every right to defend its borders,'' he said.

Sreedhar of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses ( IDSA ) pointed out that the Pakistani offensive both on ground and in air was beginning to look more and more menacing. He said the uninterrupted terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East had already cost 15 Indian lives, both civilian and military.

He underlined that at the height of the Kargil conflict, there were reports that Pakistan had prepared itself for naval action. The chief of Pakistan's naval staff had even said that appropriate action would be taken against India in the event of a full-fledged war. Sreedhar pointed out that apparently, maritime reconnaissance was being carried out to assess India's naval preparedness.

He said in the existing circumstances, when the Nawaz Sharief government is trying to overcome the setback suffered in Kargil, there is every possibility of Islamabad opening new fronts against India. In this situation, Sreedhar said, the shooting down of a Pakistani reconnaissance plane is a clear warning to Pakistan.

Air Chief Marshal ( retd ) S K Kaul said that it was clear case of intrusion by an enemy aircraft. ''The plane was in our territory and there is no reason why it should not have been shot down.''

He too was confident that there was no possibility of a war breaking out between the two countries. ''During times of heightened tensions, the Indian defence forces are on high alert and, therefore, the chances of a reprisal by Pakistan are remote. That apart, Pakistan had also shot down two Indian aircraft during the Kargil conflict,'' he said.

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