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What forced the BSP to vote?

In the end, the Bharatiya Janata Party, very much like the Indian cricket team, lacked the killer instinct to convert possible victory into an actual victory. The Atal Bihari Vajpayee government lost the vote of confidence by the narrowest of margins possible: 1, or 2. The government garnered 269 ayes to the Opposition's 270 nays. However, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam parliamentary leader Sedapatti Muthiah has claimed that his vote was not counted. He has lodged a complaint. If true, then the lead would be two and the final figure would read 260 to 271.

Till Friday night, the BJP had every reason to be satisfied. It clearly had the edge even after the Tamil Maanila Congress decided to vote against it. Even the decision of Saifuddin Soz of the National Conference to defy his leadership and vote against the government was negated by the fact that Anand Mohan of the Rashtriya Janata Party had decided to back the government. Moreover, one Rashtriya Loktantrik Manch member is abroad for treatment. Of course, the government could not count on the vote of the speaker.

And despite the brouhaha created by the presence of Orissa Chief Minister Giridhar Gamang, the fact is that the BJP accounted for him in their calculations. In fact, a couple of days ago, a senior BJP official speaking to the media had said, "We will protest against Gamang voting since morally he should not, but legally we are aware that he is perfectly within his right to do so." Therefore, despite the one-hour debate over whether Gamang should vote or not, the BJP was ready for him.

What the BJP was not prepared for was the mercurial Bahujan Samaj Party. And in that, the flaw is that of the BJP alone. When BJP leaders had convinced Kanshi Ram and Mayawati to abstain, there was no doubt of a quid pro quo, given that the BSP had many major grouses against the BJP, all of which Mayawati is now busy airing to the press.

As Mayawati said, "When we agreed to share power in Uttar Pradesh, the idea was that if one party had the chief minister's post, the other would hold the assembly speaker's post. When we gave up the chief minister's post to Kanshi Ram, they did not in return give us the speaker's post. And the speaker, in violation of the anti-defection law, allowed 12 members of the BSP to split and support the Kanshi Ram government even after the BSP pulled out. We feared that the BJP might split us again and hence decided to oppose it."

The 12-member split is questionable since the anti-defection law states that at least one-third of the members must separate simultaneously to be recognised as a legal party. The BSP strength in the UP assembly is 69. After the initial 12, another 11 members too have now split from the BSP. But Kanshi Ram and Mayawati have demanded that the splits are illegal and the members should be dismissed from the assembly. The BSP has been nursing this grouse for long and the BJP should have been extra sensitive, especially since they needed her to stay away from backing the opposition.

Where the BJP erred is in not following up with the BSP and ensuring their abstention. The Opposition worked the other way. According to sources, when the Opposition became aware that it lacked the necessary numbers, it went all out to woo the BSP. Jayalalitha spoke to Mayawati on Friday night while Sonia Gandhi allegedly met Mayawati on Saturday morning, though both are denying the meeting. Sharad Pawar also spoke to Kanshi Ram.

Also, the BSP leaders were acutely aware that two of their five members of Parliament, Arif Mohammad and Akbar Ahmed were keen to oppose the BJP. Mohammad is a close friend of V P Singh, who incidentally put pressure on Saifudding Soz Friday night to vote against the BJP, while Ahmed is close to Mulayam Singh Yadav. Their pressure and fear of them splitting finally forced the BSP's hand.

The BJP had also become a bit too cocky and overconfident. Another complaint being voiced is that the BJP leadership did not pay sufficient attention to the other single-party members who could have been swayed by the government by offering them certain government posts and perks. The feeling is that after Om Prakash Chautala and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam announced their decision to back the government

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