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BJP is now the centre of gravity in Tamil politics

The Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party, demonstrated its cadre strength, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham, 'senior' ally of the BJP, hinted at another show for its benefit, and the 'rival' DMK formally moved from the left to the centre, preparatory to taking a right turn. Thus, at the end of the week-long "Anna road show" across the state, it is the BJP that finds itself at the centre of 'Dravidian' politics.

"It's a turning point in Tamil Nadu politics," senior BJP leader and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee said about the MDMK rally in Madras to commemorate the 90th birth anniversary of the party's patron-saint and DMK founder, the late C N Annadurai.

Union Home Minister L K Advani, also of the BJP, Defence Minister George Fernandes, of the Samata Party, Akali Dal leader and Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, and his Jammu & Kashmir counterpart Farooq Abdullah, of the National Conference, also addressed the rally.

Also present were two of the MDMK's state-level allies, Dr S Ramadoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi and Union Petroleum Minister Vazhappadi K Ramamurthy, of the Thamizhaga Rajiv Congress. Conspicuous by her absence was AIADMK supremo J Jayalalitha, who staged a road show of her own at Tiruchirappali the same day, more to spite Vajpayee and MDMK chief Vaiko than to remember Anna.

If Vaiko got the attestation of Anna's erstwhile federal allies like the National Conference and the Akali Dal, the biggest gainer, quite accidentally, was the BJP. Using the platform of the MDMK, most radical of the Dravidian parties, it demonstrated its approval among other federal-minded regional parties.

The rally proved that the Dravidian movement has come a long way from its anti-Hindi, anti-North, anti-religious days, when the Congress and the BJP were branded as "northern" parties. Likewise, the BJP too has shed some of its Hindutva ideology, and has been accepted by other so-called communal parties like the Akali Dal and the National Conference and parties like the Telugu Desam and the Samata.

In a way, there were only winners in the "Anna road show" contest. While the MDMK's aim was to be accepted by the BJP as a major player in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK wanted to demonstrate its strength, again to the BJP. Both achieved their aims. Though the AIADMK got limited success, it proved to the BJP what it could mean to have its better cadre strength and organisational skills on its side. The party managed to draw a good crowd in Trichy at short notice, while the MDMK had spent months preparing for its show, and had VVIP attractions to boot.

But it was the DMK's golden jubilee conference at Tirunelveli that proved to be of the greatest significance. The DMK has moved closer to the BJP in recent months, and at Tirunelveli party chief and state Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi took one more step in the "right" direction.

Addressing party cadres on the emotional and historic occasion, he referred to his recent meeting with Communist Party of India-Marxist general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet where they discussed the possibility of a non-Congress, non-BJP third front. "We are going on our own for the present," he said. "We cannot take any decision on joining a third front without knowing its constituents, and without knowing its attitude towards the BJP and the Congress."

Coming on the heels of an interview in which Karunanidhi offered to co-operate with the BJP if it proved its secular credentials, his statement can only mean that the DMK is looking to align with the BJP. His loaded declaration also hinted at the possibility of the Communists admitting the AIADMK into the third front. In fact, Karunanidhi would like that to happen first so that the BJP gravitates towards him.

While the DMK and the MDMK share an antipathy to the Congress, the AIADMK is willing to do business with anyone. Actually, the AIADMK is less comfortable now in the BJP's company than it was with the Congress. Jayalalitha is also aware of the manoeuvres behind her back and will not want to be left friendless. Yet, she will not let go of the BJP until she has received a positive signal from the Congress.

So it continues to be love-hate for the BJP-AIADMK alliance. If Jayalalitha lashed out at Advani at Trichy for not keeping his promise of action against the DMK government in the aftermath of the Coimbatore blasts, she is also trying to convince the BJP that she remains its best bet in the state.

AIADMK sources say she plans to celebrate the birth anniversary of the party's founder and her mentor, the late M G Ramachandran, on January 17, 1999, at Coimbatore or Madras, where she will invite all those who attended the MDMK's Anna rally and try to make it a bigger show.

But the BJP is now playing hard to get. Advani plans to visit Coimbatore next month to propagate the "good work" of the Vajpayee government. He also lost no time in joining issue with Jayalalitha, and denied ever having promised to dismiss Karunanidhi.

Incidentally, this was Vajpayee's first visit to Tamil Nadu as prime minister. The irony of the AIADMK, an ally, creating problems for him on such an occasion was not lost on people.

Vajpayee also promised the people that the Cauvery accord was the best possible, and announced early implementation of the Rs 500 crore Sedusamudram project, pending for four decades.

BJP strategists believe such gestures will help them go directly to the masses, over the heads of the Dravidian parties. They saw that happen with the Cauvery accord, and are convinced that the Tamil voters, who account for 40 seats in the Lok Sabha, are ready for a change from the past.

Vajpayee also said any party, including the DMK, was welcome to support his government, but he did not need certificates from anyone, a clear signal that the BJP is ready to do business with the DMK, but on its own terms. And the terms may include acceptance of the MDMK.

Indications are that the BJP is working towards an alliance with the DMK and MDMK, pushing the AIADMK into the Congress camp, then seeking the anti-Jaya votes of the Tamil Maanila Congress with its nationalist credentials and corruption-free image. Likewise, both the DMK and the MDMK feel they can use the other two parties to subserve their own interests. Clearly, the TMC may soon have to do some hard thinking.

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