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Bihar needs President's rule, Tamil Nadu doesn't

The BJP government can be brought down in just seven days if the Congress is willing!" swears Chandra Shekhar. And why does our former prime minister wish to plunge India into another round of instability? Because, he says, the Union home minister's decision to look into the law and order situation in West Bengal is a threat to India's federal structure.

Chandra Shekhar's concern for federalism is utterly spurious. The DMK ministry in Tamil Nadu was sent packing in January 1990 when Chandra Shekhar was prime minister. I leave it to you to decide which is worse: to send a team asking for information or to sack a popularly elected ministry by abusing Article 356.

As Chandra Shekhar may recall, even serving up Karunanidhi's head didn't endear him to the Congress -- his own ministry was toppled weeks later. Why is he so eager to ask for a replay?

The simple fact is that Chandra Shekhar, the Left, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and the rest see a window of opportunity whenever Jayalalitha throws a tantrum. Take away the 27 Lok Sabha votes she controls, and the Vajpayee ministry loses its majority. That opens the way to a non-BJP government and, presumably, to the dismissal of the DMK ministry.

It is admittedly a weird situation. The BJP is refusing to throw out Karunanidhi, an avowed foe in the Lok Sabha poll, even if it means losing office. And if the BJP refuses, his United Front partners will join Jayalalitha to throw him out!

There are, however, excellent reasons, why the prime minister and the home minister won't surrender their principles. To begin with -- and this is what really angers the AIADMK chief -- neither of them is convinced that Tamil Nadu is a fit case for using Article 356.

There are also three practical reasons. First, President Narayanan won't sign the papers unthinkingly. Second, the courts can't be persuaded that the move was justified. Third, the government lacks the votes to win the Rajya Sabha's approval (as required under the Constitution).

Of course, those questions needn't be considered until the Vajpayee ministry is toppled and another takes its place. I am sure the guardians of federalism, secularism, and other virtues are ready and willing. But the brutal fact is that they simply don't have the numbers behind them.

Speaking casually of toppling the government in a week may make the headlines, but not enough attention was paid to the second part of Chandra Shekhar's statement. Is the Congress really willing to lead a shaky post-poll coalition?

This is where it starts to get interesting. Saner heads in both the BJP and the Congress are calling for an end to mindless bickering, all that opposition for opposition's sake. They recommend a consensual approach on some issues in the larger national interest.

The utter breakdown of law and order in Bihar is definitely one of those areas where the BJP and Congress need to act together. Tamil Nadu may not require President's rule; Bihar definitely does. When a state sees an average of 14 murders a day, there is definitely something wrong!

I can now reveal that Dr Manmohan Singh, the Congress floor-leader in the Rajya Sabha, has been in touch with a senior minister, an MP from Bihar. Negotiations are at a very early stage indeed and there is no guarantee that the Congress will co-operate.

But I can say that the prime minister and Sonia Gandhi are planning to meet early in July. While there is no official agenda as such, the talks will be wide-ranging. In other words, Bihar is certain to be discussed.

The implications of such a step shall be felt well beyond the borders of Bihar itself. Half a century of parliamentary democracy hasn't really acquainted Indian politicians with the concept of a 'responsible opposition'.

In the days of Congress dominance there was no real opposition to the ruling party. The Congress itself was content to be purely disruptive when forced out of office. The first step to presenting constructive criticism was when the BJP emerged as the principal challenger during the Narasimha Rao period.

Now, we may just see the Congress learning a lesson appreciated by the BJP back in Narasimha Rao's day -- acting as a responsible opposition party can pay dividends just as much as being in government.

It is a pity that 'responsibility' is a word that simply doesn't exist in the dictionary of certain others. And it is an even greater pity that they are content to wallow in an empty opposition!

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T V R Shenoy