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BJP's overtures don't cut much ice with AIADMK

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

The All India Anna DMK is unimpressed by the 'placatory efforts' of the Bharatiya Janata Party on the eve of the Lok Sabha taking up the Union Budget for debate and vote.

But insiders concede that the AIADMK has little choice, as the Congress is still reluctant to risk forming an alternate government at the Centre, with a promise to dismiss the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government in Tamil Nadu.

"They want our votes to pass the Budget, and that's it, "says an AIADMK leader on statements made in Madras recently by Energy Minister P Rangarajan Kumaramangalam and BJP general secretary M Venkaiah Naidu, hinting at an 'open door' policy on the dismissal question.

While Naidu pointed out that the BJP was not sworn against the use of Article 356 unlike many other parties, Kumaramangalam told the press separately that the "law and order situation in the state has not improved".

What possibly prompted the statements was the AIADMK's walkout in both Houses of Parliament, demanding the dismissal of the DMK government. Incidentally, AIADMK chief J Jayalalitha was having closed-door sessions with party ministers, MPs and senior leaders through the weekend, finalising her strategy to pressure the BJP into conceding her demand. Notably, the AIADMK's allies, the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Marumalarchi DMK, with a total of seven MPs, did not join the walkouts.

"We do know that the AIADMK walkout was prompted by a special court at Madras 'attaching' Jayalalitha's movable properties, recovered during raids in 1996," says a BJP source. "The AIADMK sees it as a renewed DMK move to follow up on the criminal cases against her." And this, notwithstanding the stay of the attachment proceedings that the AIADMK could obtain the same night at the home of a vacation judge of the Madras high court.

However, BJP sources clarify there is little that the party could do about conceding the AIADMK demand. "Dismissing a duly-elected state government goes against the grain of our principled stand, and violates the apex court verdict in the Bommai case. The President too may not be inclined."

While the AIADMK seems to realise it, the leadership would like some kind of pressure being applied by the Centre, for the DMK regime to at least go slow on the cases against Jayalalitha. "Amma strongly believes in an underlying BJP-DMK nexus, and wants it exploited to her benefit," says the party source.

In this context, the AIADMK leader also refers to the Congress's unwillingness to try form an alternate government should the AIAMDK withdraw support to the Vajpayee regime. "For its own strategic and realistic reasons, the Congress does not want to jump the gun in great haste. Though Congress spokesmen have started talking about an alternate government, they do not seem to be serious about the proposition as yet."

The source is also not sure that the Congress and the United Front, particularly the latter, will be ready to accept the AIADMK in the DMK's place. "Most United Front partners, as also the Left Front are sympathetic towards the DMK. They could still rope in the DMK-friendly Telugu Desam, and other smaller parties, than seek out the AIADMK."

As he points out, the exit of the DMK and the Tamil Maanila Congress in the event of the AIADMK entering the anti-BJP bandwagon could mean the end of the United Front itself. "Still they may not be able to win a majority."

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