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Jaya fails to get allies to see her point of view on withdrawing support

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

Despite presenting a 'unified picture' with its Pattali Makkal Katchi and Marumalarchi DMK allies on the controversial, and nearly-forgotten, Sri Lankan Tamils issue, the All India Anna DMK has failed to convince anyone of its demand for the dismissal of the Tamil Nadu government -- or its planned withdrawal of support to the Vajpayee regime, in stages.

What has piqued the AIADMK leadership even further is the continued lack of initiative on the Congress's part to take the BJP-AIADMK differences to their logical conclusion, and try to form an alternative government.

"We can't understand the Congress's logic," says a senior AIADMK leader, referring to its refusal to embarrass the BJP in Parliament, beyond a point. "They were talking in terms of moving an adjournment motion on the Ayodhya issue, but did nothing about it. So also, they did not press for a division on the railway budget, and let it be passed by voice-vote."

The AIADMK leader, however, clarifies that the party would not have voted against the Vajpayee government on either issue. "We are also committed to voting for the Union budget when it is taken up." But a vote none the less would have given the party a 'bargaining chip' with the BJP, to commit the latter to the dismissal of the DMK government, he adds.

The leader also concedes that differences still existed between the AIADMK and its PMK and MDMK allies, on the dismissal question, and on withdrawing support to the Vajpayee government. "But clearly, both the MDMK and the PMK are pursuing independent lines, based on different strategies, but their goals seem to converge at some point, none the less."

More than anytime earlier, the AIADMK is now convinced that the party cannot count on the other two in its threat to withdraw support to the BJP-led government at the Centre. Although the leaders of the two parties accompanied the AIADMK delegation that met Prime Minister A B Vajpayee on Wednesday last, they did not join the party in its by-now ritualistic walkout in both houses of Parliament.

"But that by itself is a dangerous trend," says a leader of the Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress, the one-man party of Petroleum Minister Vazhapadi K Ramamurthy. Still under Z-category security for his past utterances on the LTTE when he was president of the state Congress, particularly during the Rajiv Gandhi assassination, Ramamurthy boycotted the meeting with Vajpayee, and also the walkout.

Says the TRC leader: "In seeking to present a unified picture to the nation with her allies, Jayalalitha has yielded ground that she should not have done in the first place." As he points out, the 'Sri Lankan issue' is close to the hearts of the PMK-MDMK leadership, and by adopting their agenda, "she has not only played into their hands, with little of her purpose served, but has also played into the hands of the LTTE".

Incidentally, the AIADMK-led delegation's meeting coincided with the Union home ministry's newspaper advertisements extending the ban on LTTE. "We are with the Jayalalitha and the AIADMK on the dismissal question, but cannot play handmaiden to the LTTE, whatever be the broader issue involved," says the TRC leader.

In this context, he also refers to Vajpayee's own record of supporting the Sri Lankan Tamil cause while in the Opposition, and Defence Minister George Fernandes's 'continued interest' in this regard. "By choosing a sensitive issue to project what's purely a local political cause, the AIADMK may end up sending out wrong signals to the Colombo government, when India needs to maintain good relations with its neighbours after Pokhran-II." Adds he as an afterthought: "There is also the danger of other outside forces and agencies seeking to exploit the situation, and extending their networks and operations inside India, politically and otherwise. The ISI is no exception."

For the present, the AIADMK leadership seems to be having second thoughts about going ahead with its agenda of action to press the dismissal demand. "We are convinced that we have to play along with the BJP, and hope that our demand is conceded at least after the budget session of Parliament." In the same vein, however, the party leader concedes that "Jayalalitha's criminal cases cannot wait that long, and we have to do something about it all, quick and fast".

The AIADMK leadership has reportedly undertaken a review of its strategy vis-à-vis the BJP. It wants action, but does not know how to go about it.

"Even the national media seems to have been sensitised against Jayalalitha's pinpricks to the BJP. We also cannot ignore the possibility of fresh elections to the Lok Sabha, instead of the state assembly, where our track-record of the past three months could work against us."

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