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AIADMK readies for final push, may not vote for Budget

The All India Anna DMK is readying to snap ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre if the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government does not dismiss the rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam regime in Tamil Nadu.

"Vague hints" being dropped by the BJP leaders in this regard will no longer do, a senior party leader categorically said.

The 18 AIADMK MPs in the Lok Sabha, despite the daily walkouts adopted as part of the pressure tactics, are geared to vote with the government. However, party sources say the AIADMK leadership will weigh their options on the vote on the Budget.

"Even if it is not possible to effect the dismissal of the DMK government before the end of this session of the Lok Sabha, we will require convincing proof of the central government's will to do so, before we decide on our continuing as an alliance partner," a senior AIADMK leader said on Tuesday.

Party sources said that AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalitha has sent two letters to Prime Minister Vajpayee. The letters will be handed over by a delegation of party MPs by Wednesday.

One of the missives reminds the PM about the promised Cabinet reshuffle. The AIADMK has two vacant berths, caused by the resignations of Sedapatti R Muthaiah and R K Kumar, and has been promised a third minister of state berth as well. The letter also reportedly refers to the promise of an additional minister of state berth for a nominee from the Pattali Makkal Katchi, an electoral ally of the AIADMK.

The other letter reportedly details the AIADMK's countermoves, should the Union government "persist with its hesitation on the dismissal demand".

Both epistles, say sources, reiterate a demand for a personal meeting with the prime minister before voting on the Budget is taken up.

"The AIADMK's ambiguity is striking," says a BJP leader in TN, countering the latest threats from that part. "They want to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds." According to him, the BJP's hands are 'nearly tied' as far as the dismissal demand goes. "Getting a dismissal motion through the Rashtrapati Bhavan, the apex court and the Rajya Sabha is going to be a difficult job," he pointed out.

The BJP leader referred to the tough posture of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Muthuvel Karunanidhi in this regard. "Karunanidhi has hinted at fresh Lok Sabha polls. Obviously," argued the BJP leader, "he implies that the likes of the Telugu Desam and some other allies of the BJP may not stand by the Centre on the dismissal question."

While the bulk of the AIADMK leadership echoes Jayalalitha's demand, the odd cautionary voice surfaces even within the ranks of that party. "We may be ready and able to pull down the BJP-led government at any time, but no clear alternative has presented itself. The BJP too may want to side with us on the dismissal issue, even if only under pressure, but they have other allies to answer to as well. For us, it is a case of heads you win, tails I lose."

The feeling within the AIADMK leadership is that the Congress may now be ready to help pull down the BJP government. However, that party seems unclear about the alternative set-up, nor does it have any specific answers to the question of who will lead the coalition that could replace the existing government.

Congress leaders in the state, however, refute the AIADMK assessment and indicate that their party has no intention of toppling the BJP-led government. "Our assessment remains the same," says a senior Congress leader. "The BJP continues to lose its sheen with every passing day, and we do not want to make a martyr out of them by doing anything in haste." Nor is the Congress ready to go into partnership with 'minor parties' anymore, the leader added.

The AIADMK leader says what the Congress does, or does not do, is really irrelevant. "To say that the Congress is ready to topple the BJP-led government doesn't mean anything. We do not require the Congress to help us do that, nor do we need their permission to withdraw our support. All we are waiting for is for the situation to clarify further, so that we can be sure the alternate set-up, irrespective of who heads it, will be ready to dismiss the DMK government."

One issue worrying the AIADMK as it poises for the crucial phase of its ongoing campaign is the continued abstention of its PMK and MDMK allies from the daily walkouts in Parliament. "Already, this has sent a message to the cadres on all sides that our allies are not with us, and this is a situation we have to seriously consider and combat if we are to face a fresh election even to the state assembly at our instance."

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