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Admiral J G Nadkarni

Nuclear tests: The balance sheet

Now that both sides have proved a point, it is time to get down to some serious discussions. The crowds are still dancing in the streets and it will take some time before the reality brings them down to earth. According to the latest survey more than 70 per cent of the people are 'feeling good' about the nuclear tests. Ironically the man on the street is feeling good for totally wrong reasons.

One should be happy that the tests on both sides has brought in a semblance of nuclear parity and made the chances of both conventional and nuclear war between the two countries that much more remote. Instead, the jingoistic speeches of politicians, defence experts and even scientists made the people believe now that we have the Bomb we will be able to finish off Pakistan tomorrow and China the week after. Indeed, for a time the euphoria really got out of hand.

Defence experts gleefully began to dish out the discarded '70s lexicon of the Cold War and the air was full of 'No first strike,' 'Second strike capability' and 'Mutual Assured Destruction.' Scientists began to make 'V' signs and emulate Dr Strangelove. Sadly, even some top defence people jumped on the bandwagon and began to look like a caricature of the bemedalled cigar chomping American generals of the Viet Nam era shouting, 'Let's nuke the bastards.'

Indeed, possession of the Bomb by both sides can be made into a powerful deterrent against a future war. During the Cold War nuclear deterrence worked for more than forty years. Not even the Cuban, Hungarian nor the Czech crises led to war between the two sides. The credit must go, not only to responsible leadership but to an enlightened people on both sides, who were fully aware of the horrors of war and a nuclear holocaust.

The countries of Europe had seen two major wars during the century, losing millions of men on the battlefield. The Soviet Union lost more than 20 million of its citizens during the Second World War. Berlin, Hamburg, Warsaw and many other European cities had been flattened by conventional bombing. The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had received wide publicity and a strong public opinion had been built up about the aftereffects of a nuclear war.

Not so in India. Not one out of the ten thousands who danced in the streets had the slightest idea of the effects of a nuclear explosion on a civilian population. Except for the few bombs dropped on Vishakhapatnam and Madras during the Second World War and a handful in 1971, no Indian city has ever been bombed. For the average Indian citizen war is something to be fought out by the armies of the two countries in a remote part of his country. He has yet to realise that during the next exchange he and 9 million of his colleagues may possibly be wiped out if he is a resident of Bombay, New Delhi or Ahmedabad.

The Indian citizen may take one more thought with him to bed each night. If it was so easy to smuggle in RDX and set off a series of explosions in March 1993, will it be all that difficult to smuggle a small nuclear device into Bombay? Are Pakistan's bombs in secure hands and all accounted for?

It will take a lot of education and time for this truth to sink in. But when it does and when we have a frightened but enlightened population it will make the nuclear weapons of both countries true deterrents. At that time we will be able to join the people of London, Paris, Berlin and Moscow who have been living with that fear for the past fifty years.

Fourteen years ago an American television movie, The Day After realistically brought out the aftereffects of a nuclear explosion over an American city. If the Indian government is serious about educating its people they can do no better than getting hold of that film, dubbing it in Hindi and making it compulsory viewing on prime time television. Only when public opinion is built up against any future war will nuclear weapons prove to be true deterrents.

In the meantime we can get down to drawing up a balance sheet of the aftereffects of the tests on both sides.

On the plus side there is no doubt that the nation's sagging morale has been restored, at least for the time being. People are proud of our scientific achievements and are prepared to pay any price for it. The economic sanctions can hardly have much of an effect on a country where more than 30 per cent are already poor.

Indian scientists have received a boost to their reputation. They have proved that they are capable of major technical achievements against tremendous odds and that too without resorting to subterfuge or theft from abroad. Having already proved the delivery systems it will be only a short step for them to put the bombs atop missiles.

Finally, taking the nuclear explosions to their logical conclusion, weaponisation may eventually lead to the beginning of serious talks between the two countries and hopefully to a treaty banning the first use of the weapons and a reduction in conventional forces. If that happens, it would indeed be a welcome result of the exercise of our nuclear option.

Economic sanctions on Pakistan should not be the cause of joy in India. Yet, in an indirect way it should benefit both countries. Senator Brown has already withdrawn his infamous amendment which helped Pakistan to get the P3 Orison aircraft and Harpoon missiles. It is now most unlikely that the F-16s will ever see Pakistani soil. This should also end any effort on the Indian side to match the acquisitions.

Furthermore, countries facing major economic difficulties are hardly likely to spend enormous amounts on arms purchases. Thus the sanctions may eventually lead to a temporary moratorium on arms purchases by both. Obviously we will have to pay a price for our effrontery. Eventual peace cannot be bought cheaply.

On the negative side we will have to pay both a political and economic price for our action. The response from the United States and European countries has been predictable. The condemnation and the sanctions are in inverse proportion to the economic stakes these countries have in India. Thus the response from France, Britain and Russia has been more restrained.

India is still a large arms procurer and these countries are still hoping to get a piece of the cake when the expected arms race between India and Pakistan takes place. Russia, which has sold Rs 100 billion worth of equipment to the Indian Air Force and the Navy during the last two years, expects to sell the aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov and Kilo class submarines in the near future.

For some strange reason we have alienated China. It is still not clear whether the defence minister's outburst was part of the game plan and if so why we had to justify our decision to go nuclear by invoking China. We have, for no real reason, destroyed the bridges we had been assiduously building with that country for the past twenty years.

Admiral J G Nadkarni

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