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Intelligence agencies had tipped off Tamil Nadu govt about likely blasts

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

Did the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam government in Tamil Nadu overlook, if not ignore, a police intelligence report on the imminent blasts that killed more than 80 people in a series of blasts on Saturday and Sunday?

Though such a conclusion flows naturally from reports on hand, it is not clear whether it was a failure on the part of the political leadership, or the top echelons of bureaucracy which may not have briefed Chief Minister M Karunanidhi properly.

According to informed sources, the state intelligence had predicted events of the kind that occurred at Coimbatore a few days back. An intelligence report around February 10 is also said to have mentioned the possibility of car-bombs and scooter-bombs being used to create tension and violence. At that time, however, it was not known that Bharatiya Janata Party president L K Advani would be present in the textile town on Saturday.

The intelligence report formed part of a discussion at a meeting of the law and order machinery at the highest-level later, but Karunanidhi, who is also his home minister, was not present. "A proposal was made at the meeting for a pre-emptive strike on suspected fundamentalist groups, but it is not known whether those who briefed the chief minister drove home the seriousness of the problem to him," said a participant at the meeting.

The intelligence wing had become the butt of criticism for not alerting the government adequately about the communal violence of November in Coimbatore, and also about the seriousness of the caste clashes in the southern districts earlier last year. But sources maintain that the intelligence reports had been behind the recovery of an arms cache from a rice mill near Thanjavur in the last fortnight. "Even the pre-dawn sweep on the hideouts of Islamic fundamentalists at Coimbatore on Sunday morning, was based on such information."

With Advani reiterating his earlier charge that he was the 'target' of the conspiracy and that the DMK government was responsible for the failure of law and order, the pressure has mounted on the ruling party to prove its innocence and the efficiency of its administration. Confounding matters is its track-record.

The DMK had lost the 1991 assembly and Lok Sabha elections very badly after the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. Even the current election has been caused by the Jain Commission report holding the Karunanidhi leadership responsible for the proliferation of the LTTE in the pre-assassination era.

"But there seems to be an even more sinister conspiracy than one may be willing to concede," says a DMK source. While Islamic fundamentalists and the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence agency are the prime suspects for the recent blasts in the state, "the fact that Tamil Nadu is being made the target of such repeated election-eve violence that could tilt the results violently, should be an eye-opener," says this source. "And on both occasions, the DMK has been the political victim, for no fault of its."

In all, 14 of the 39 parliamentary constituencies in the state went to the polls on Monday, while the rest have their elections on February 22. There is now a general apprehension in the camps of the DMK and its electoral ally, the Tamil Maanila Congress, that the weekend's violence may work against the alliance.

"We are not sure whether that was also among the motives of the perpetrators of the crime, but that may after all be a fallout," says a TMC leader. However, by Sunday afternoon, by which time near-normalcy had returned to Coimbatore, he was confident that whatever political damage had been done, it would be confined to Coimbatore and its neighbourhood.

"But it can cut both ways," says an intelligence source. "If there is tension in Coimbatore or anywhere else where polling takes place -- the constituency will have its turn in the second phase -- there are equal chances of the middle class staying away. This can affect the BJP more, even in Coimbatore."

According to him, however, the riots of Coimbatore, if it spreads elsewhere, could in turn "scare away Muslim voters across the state, damaging the DMK-TMC combine very badly."

Indications are that the state government may hand over the Coimbatore case, as also other blasts in the state in recent times, to the CBI. Advani, however, has said, it should be left to the federal government to decide. While the ban on two Islamic organisations, the All India Jihad Committee and the Al Umma, seems to have had a salutary effect in the last 24 hours, there is a general perception that the government should have been firm from the very beginning.

"That complacency may be held against the ruling party, both politically and administratively," says the source. He does not rule out the possibility of other "foreign forces," like the LTTE too having a hand in the operation, though the Tigers may not be in it on their own.

A better picture will be available only when the police interrogate the arrested militants in Coimbatore, and learn more about the modus operandi of the militants behind the blasts and the like.

"But one thing is clear," muses the TMC leader. "With Advani himself holding the DMK government responsible, and the AIADMK chief Jayalalitha leading the chorus for Karunanidhi's resignation, a prospective BJP government at the Centre could not ignore any demand for Karunanidhi's dismissal."

EARLIER REPORTS:
Coimbatore toll rises to 81
Rajnikanth blasts AIADMK-BJP attempt to unseat DMK govt
Kesri blames RSS for Coimbatore blasts
33 killed in serial blasts in Coimbatore
Fear over the city
Fear and loathing in Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu cops under heavy fire for Coimbatore violence
Al-Umma wants to protect the Muslims and fight the RSS

Elections '98

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