ELECTIONS '98
COMMENTARY
SPECIALS
INTERVIEWS
CAPITAL BUZZ
REDIFF POLL
DEAR REDIFF
THE STATES
YEH HAI INDIA!
ARCHIVES

TN people tired of Jaya-BJP squabbles

Parvathi, a 20-year-old girl whose marriage has been fixed for next month, committed suicide in the Abiramaburam locality of Madras on Wednesday, by setting herself on fire on the streets, in broad daylight.

She could not suffer the ignominy of having been dragged to the local police station for allegedly deflating a neighbour's bicycle.

The locals took to the streets, and a head constable has been kept under suspension for not heeding Parvathi's pleas against being taken to the police station.

The same evening, people in the Arumbakkam locality in the city took to the streets, seeking a probe into the death of Chandran, laboratory technician in a local nursing home. He had been suspected of pilferage, and the people in turn suspected foul play behind his death, as he was found brutally beaten up.

But in neither locality in the city, or any other elsewhere in the state, the people seemed to be overtly concerned about the goings-on in distant Delhi.

Even at Tirunelveli town in southern Tamil Nadu, where the politically-conscious cadres of the Tamil Maanila Congress ally of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam held a successful rally on Saturday last, the public pronouncements from the dais, and private exchanges in the tea-stalls and air-conditioned chambers revolved mostly around the party forming a third front on its own.

People in the state seem to be tired and disinterested mostly about All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham chief J Jayalalitha and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the Jain Commission and the action taken report. They have their own concerns to attend to, and methods to evaluate their political leaders. And they pronounce their verdict, firmly, yet quietly, every time they go to the polls.

The indifference of the public, as also of the party cadres, is there for all to see.

Barring the much-maligned media whose fate it is to brave sun and rain, standing outside the closed gates of Jayalalitha's Poes Garden bungalow, answering every rumour of an imminent decision of the AIADMK withdrawal of support to the Vajpayee government, few people keep hanging around even by way of bystanders.

This, in a city, where even the dredging of a canal, a none-too uncommon road accident where no one is seriously injured, draws momentary attention from every passer-by.

The voter indifference to anything politics was visible even earlier. The heavens did not fall as expected when Jayalalitha was arrested on December 6, 1996.

Months earlier, when the state went to the polls after five long years of AIADMK rule, there was little by way of public demonstration of the voter's fury. But when the results were out, the AIADMK had been routed. Jayalalitha herself lost her Bargur assembly seat by a huge margin.

Interestingly for this public indifference, Tamil Nadu continues to be at the centre of national politics, and Madras continues to the political capital of India, New Delhi playing the role only in administrative matters.

Earlier, it was the DMK-TMC duo that made the crucial difference to the evolving situation at every turn after the 1996 poll, and even the general election this year was caused by the Congress demand against the DMK on the Jain Commission's interim report.

But then, if you thought that it only meant Jayalalitha stealing the centre-stage from the DMK-TMC duo after the Lok Sabha poll, and reminding Prime Minister Vajpayee and his BJP leadership that their government survived at her instance, it is not to be. There is more to Tamil Nadu than Jayalalitha in the evolving scenario, even if the AIADMK pulls out.

First, the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Pattali Makkal Katchi allies of Jayalalitha with a total of seven Lok Sabha members, seem to be have second thoughts about going with her if she withdrew support.

There is also the one-member Thamizhaga Rajiv Congress of Union Petroleum Minister Vazhappadi K Ramamurthy.

It is not only that their doubtful start on Jayalalitha's side that has made decision-making that much more difficult for the AIADMK supremo, but by keeping others guessing, they have also acquired a clout and importance of their own, however small and short- lived.

Sure enough, they joining hands with Jayalalitha if she pulls out from the BJP-led alliance would make things much more difficult for the BJP. The converse is equally true, if they decide to stay put with the BJP, a decision they may prefer if the ongoing tussle does not lead to fresh polls, where alone they prefer the AIADMK to the BJP.

It does not stop there, either. Given the slender majority that the coalition government enjoys at the Centre, minus the AIADMK's 18 MPs, it would mean only 264 members in a 544-member House.

Even providing for the casting vote of the Speaker -- a practice never adopted at least at the Centre -- going to the ruling coalition, it would require at least eight more votes to cross the 272-cut-off mark.

Against this, any alternative coalition with the Congress leading it, and the AIADMK present in it, will have a total of 271 members, counting in all those who are not now on the Treasury benches, but excluding the DMK and the TMC.

The DMK has five members, and the TMC, three, and there are reasons for not including them both on either side.

In the face of a showdown, the chances of the DMK abstaining from voting are brighter than it was in March, when it voted against the first confidence-vote sought by the Vajpayee government.

For one thing, the 'Cauvery accord' has been at the centre of the ongoing row between the BJP and the AIADMK, and the DMK stands to benefit from it.

Without this too, there seems to be some truth in Jayalalitha's public charge that the BJP has been eyeing the DMK as a future ally.

The Jain Commission ATR naming Chief Minister M Karunanidhi has ensured that the DMK cannot go with the Congress, particularly in the AIADMK's company, despite the TMC's intentions in this regard.

Most, if not all, the arguments that apply to the DMK, also apply to the TMC.

The cadres are against the TMC being seen in the AIADMK's company, with or without the Congress, though party leader and former Union finance minister P Chidambaram has floated the possibility of support to a Congress-led alternative at the Centre.

The TMC, however, does not seem disinclined to abstaining from voting if the Vajpayee government seeks one if the AIADMK withdrew support.

The positive public mood on the 'Cauvery accord', whose whopping 40 per cent share in the voting population, may ensure that.

But the question remains, whether the TMC, or for that matter the DMK, will vote in the Vajpayee government's favour.

They will have a crucial decision to take: if their idea is to oppose the AIADMK's 'anti-people stance', and to ensure the continuance of the Vajpayee government, they, like the Telugu Desam Party before them, may have to cast a positive vote.

Should both parties vote positively, it would ensure the continuance of the Vajpayee government. But if either of them -- and the chances of the TMC doing so are bright -- decide otherwise, then again the focus will stay on in Tamil Nadu.

Will a third or more of the 18 AIADMK members from the state defect in the name of the 'Cauvery accord', and save the government?

Jayalalitha is on record that the BJP and the DMK together have been conniving at it. However, these permutations and combinations will have meaning if and only if the AIADMK decides to withdraw support.

For the present, Jayalalitha has shown the olive branch to the BJP leadership, saying that the very reinstatement of M K Bezbaruah as enforcement director will restore normality in their relations.

Jayalalitha's public demonstration of her standing by probity and also by principled officials apart -- a thorn, this one in the moralistic BJP's flesh -- the question remains: How is it that the AIADMK supremo should demonstrate such respect for an individual official, and make his reinstatement the very cause for her continuing the AIADMK's support to the Vajpayee government?

Tell us what you think of this report