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UF reels from Karunanidhi's KO

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

With its major Tamil ally preparing to change sides, the ailing United Front is bound to suffer another body blow.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is all set to back the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government even as its chief rival in Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is on the verge of leaving the ruling coalition.

While the changeover may not necessarily force a new government, it will be the virtual end of the United Front which ran the federal government between 1996 and 1998. Today, the 13-party coalition has dwindled to a grouping of just six.

"What United Front are you talking about?" asked a disillusioned UF official. "We are now the Disunited Front. Laloo had split much earlier, Chandrababu Naidu and the Asom Gana Parishad went their own way, Mulayam quit, and now the DMK will go. What is then left behind?"

The UF now mainly comprises the Communist Party of India-Marxist, Communist Party of India, Janata Dal, the DMK, and the Tamil Maanila Congress.

Communist Party of India national secretary A K Anjan said the <statement by DMK leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister K Karunanidhi was "astonishing". "The UF is committed to fighting the communal forces and we are all against the BJP," he said.

Officially, however, the United Front is putting up a brave face. "There is no question of the DMK leaving the UF," said Janata Dal general secretary Mohan Prakash. "In fact, the DMK has categorically stated that the UF must decide the step to be taken as and when the BJP government falls."

Prakash was confident that once the AIADMK pulled out of the present government, the entire equation would change, making it unnecessary for the DMK to join the BJP. "The DMK today is only playing a game to get the AIADMK out of the BJP-led alliance," he said. "And once that happens, they will not back the BJP."

According to Prakash, the aim is to see the AIADMK isolated, with the expectation that the Congress would be extremely wary of taking support from the AIADMK and its mercurial leader, J Jayalalitha. There is no reason to assume that Jayalalitha will make life any easier for the Congress than she has for the BJP and its leaders.

However, the CPI-M, considered the main proponent of the UF today, is resigned to the fact that the DMK is bound to back out from the UF. "They have their political compulsions," said CPI-M general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet. He was referring to the fact that the DMK would not support the Congress, with the latter demanding a probe in Karunanidhi's role in the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

The CPI-M has declared that it, and the UF, will support the Congress to form the government and is actively seeking the ouster of the BJP government. It is unlikely that the DMK will support a Congress-led government that will also be backed by the AIADMK. Mohan Prakash had no answer to this question except to say that the situation will undergo a dramatic change once the AIADMK pulls out.

The CPI-M held a politburo meeting through the entire day today, reportedly to discuss the situation arising out of the AIADMK's pullout from the BJP-led alliance and the DMK's likelihood of supporting the BJP government.

Anjan of the CPI insisted that even if the DMK pulls out, the UF will survive. "We are the third force, a coalition of secular parties against the present economic policies that will harm the poor. Even if someone leaves us, others will join us," he said optimistically. But it was also Anjan who recalled that after the last general election over six months ago, the UF has not had a single meeting to thrash out a common programme for the future.

The UF has not scheduled any meeting for to discuss the present situation. However, the individual constituents are meeting to decide on their course of action.

Meanwhile, while speculation continued on the life span of the present government, a source in the Opposition said the government was likely to survive up to November. "After watching the antics of Jayalalitha, the Congress is likely to be careful of taking her backing alongside that of persons like Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Prasad Yadav," he said.

Both Jayalalitha and Laloo Yadav face corruption charges that could spell big trouble for them if convicted. In fact, today, Laloo Yadav's home in Patna was raided. Said the source, "At least Jayalalitha only wanted the Enforcement Directorate chief (M K Bezbaruah) shifted. Laloo is keen to get every inspector in the CBI transferred. Can you imagine the kind of pressure they will put on the Congress? It is unlikely that the Congress will be in hurry to take their support."

He added Laloo Yadav's recent statement that Mulayam Yadav will be the next prime minister has only added to the confusion. "All these activities have given the BJP a lease of life," the source said.

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