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Hindu vote bank threatens DMK in TN

Has the 'Dravidian' Tamil Nadu been witnessing the consolidation of the 'Hindu vote bank'? And will it be the bone of contention between the Bharatiya Janata Party and its All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham ally?

''There is definitely a 'Hindu vote bank' in the state now, though it may differ from the 'Hindutva vote bank' elsewhere in details," says an informed source. "While the 'Hindutva vote bank' is the consolidation of the 'fundamentalist Hindu view' in the aftermath of the Ayodhya row, the 'Hindu vote bank' in Tamil Nadu has been a fallout of the Coimbatore blasts of February 14, aided in a way by the daily seizures of explosives from various corners of the state in the past month."

These sources do not deny that the BJP's 'stability card' had a pull with differing sections of the state voters in different ways. "There is no denying the 'BJP pull', or the 'Vajpayee charisma'. They were more political in nature, born out of the conviction that the BJP alone would be able to provide a stable government at the Centre. That conviction went along with the traditional vote banks of the AIADMK, the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Marumalarachi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham allies of the BJP. It was also prompted by the anti-incumbency factor against the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham-Tamil Maanila Congress combine."

As this source points out, other than the constituencies like Nagercoil, Tenkasi, Tiruchendur, Tiruchi, Coimbatore, and possibly Madras South, there was no 'Hindu vote bank' worth the name in the rest of the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state. "The Coimbatore serial blasts seem to be changing all that now. But even the voters who voted on the 'bomb blasts' saw it mostly as the DMK government's failure on the law and order front, flowing from the ruling party's unmentioned sympathy and need for the Muslim vote bank."

What has consolidated this 'anti-establishment' sentiments into a 'pro-Hindu' feeling is the repeated explosives seizures and the numerous arrests of Muslim fundamentalists in the last one month or so. "There is a definite hardlining of the vocal Hindu attitude towards Islamic fundamentalism, and this may take a political and electoral turn when the occasion presents itself. Overnight, every Muslim is looked down as a suspect and every arrest and weapons recovery is seen as one more loop in a conspiracy chain."

Interestingly, however, it is the AIADMK more than the BJP which is making loud protests on the arrest and arms seizures. Possibly, given the political waywardness exhibited by the AIADMK on the eve of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government being sworn in at the Centre, the BJP does not want to close all its political options, particularly given the pro-BJP tilt visible in the DMK with its six Lok Sabha members.

If the AIADMK has been consistent in demanding the dismissal of the DMK state government for its alleged failure on the law and order front, and party supremo J Jayalalitha has called Chief Minister M Karunanidhi 'anti-national' as if to drive home the point, the BJP has been ambiguous at best. Though BJP president Lal Kishinchand Advani holds the DMK government responsible for the Coimbatore blasts, the saffron brigade has been shy of demanding the dismissal.

If anything, state BJP general secretary L Ganesan has been appreciative of the DMK government's new-found resolve to end Islamic fundamentalism in the state as evidenced by the seizures and arrests. The BJP's lone legislator also stayed inside the state assembly, when the AIADMK ally led a walkout on the opening day of the budget session earlier this month. Ironically, the walkout was on the 'Coimbatore blasts', whose political victim and electoral beneficiary the BJP has been.

Even without this, the AIADMK, both under its founder, the late M G Ramachandran, and now under Jayalalitha, has been 'pro-religion' in its political philosophy and in the personal practices of its leaders. Jayalalitha also took a pro-Hindu stand on the 'Ayodhya issue' when she was the chief minister, though her decision was mainly born out of her political compulsions, fighting as she was against the Congress at the Centre at that time.

''The AIADMK started off with the traditionally religious peripheral Congressmen who moved towards the party after the death of Kamaraj,'' says a leader. ''The rank and file worshipped MGR, and for them whatever he did or said was the right thing, religion and god included. That being the case, the AIADMK has a stronger religious base than either the DMK or the Congress, the latter now in the form of the Tamil Maanila Congress. In the company of the BJP, it could be a formidable force. But otherwise, the BJP and the AIADMK may be fighting for the loyalty of the 'neo-Hindu' votes.''

If the BJP has to consolidate these 'Hindu votes' into 'Hindutva votes', it will require some thinking and working at the grassroots level, says these sources. "Should the BJP and the AIADMK part ways, as the events of the past month have hinted at, it is the AIADMK with its finger on the pulse of local issues, like law and order, that has an edge. The traditional 'Hindutva voters' may still go with the BJP."

A lot in this regard may depend on the stability of the BJP government at the Centre, which is what motivated the Tamil voter to go the BJP-AIADMK way in the first place, their own reservations about both the parties notwithstanding.

Against this scenario, even the ruling DMK seems to be doing 'something positive' to retain its vote bank, which is in the process of going the 'Hindu way', given the 'irrelevance and the irreverence' of the Dravidian ideology to the current generation. ''The ongoing arrests and arms seizures, while ensuring law and order, also have the political advantage of the 'Hindu voters' otherwise favouring the DMK for local reasons."

The DMK leadership is, however, apprehensive over the impact of these police actions on its traditional Muslim vote banks. "The Muslims may start looking at us with suspicion, but we cannot help it," says a party leader. "Maintenance of law and order is paramount for the continuance of our government, and we are sure that the Muslim community at large will appreciate the fine distinction between hurting the community's sentiments, and taking what's necessarily an unavoidable action against select sections preaching and practising terrorism."

If there is someone who may be sitting pretty on the 'Muslim card' -- and losing the 'Hindu vote' for the same reason -- it is the Tamil Maanila Congress. Though the Muslims have been known to vote the DMK for the past decades, the TMC may now stand to gain the Muslim community's sympathy by looking the other way when the state police is coming down heavily on the Islamic fundamentalists.

"But we cannot afford to overplay this factor, as that would put off sections of the traditional Hindu voters, who used to be Congressmen through and through, but have started shifting their loyalties to parties like the BJP and the AIADMK, citing religious sentiments as the reason," says a TMC ideologue. "It will be a tight-rope walking, though what shape and size the Muslim sympathy for the TMC may take, or which way the party should go, are all vague and inconsistent."

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