Commentary/Fuzail Jafferey

The United Front government is heading for a collapse

The main plank on which the general elections to the 11th Lok Sabha were fought in early 1996 was not corruption in public life but political stability. Almost all major parties and combinations of parties contended that only a stable government could bring economic growth and prosperity to the country. After the elections, though the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the single largest party -- for the first time after Independence the Congress was pushed down to second position in Parliament -- it fell short of an absolute majority which could have enabled it to form a government.

The BJP, however, responded in a positive manner to the invitation by President Shankar Dayal Sharma and formed its first ever government at the Centre under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who, in spite of his right-wing political affiliations, is regarded as the most respectable national leader and a seasoned statesman. The BJP leaders had hoped to muster enough support from other parties, particularly the regional outfits, on the basis of a common programme. With this objective in mind, Vajpayee, in his very first address to Parliament as prime minister, categorically assured that his government would strictly adhere to the Indian Constitution and would not rake up contentious issues such as the Muslim personal law, Article 370, and the construction of a temple in Ayodhya.

The Congress, feeling threatened by the emergence of the BJP as a national alternative, and the Left parties which have serious ideological differences with the BJP, however, joined hands to topple the 13-day-old Vajpayee government, who gracefully opted out without forcing a vote of confidence in the house. Thus came into existence on June 1, 1996, the coalition government led by H D Deve Gowda -- a self-proclaimed humble farmer from Karnataka. The United Front government has 13 constituents, some of whom had fought the elections against one another, and depends on the outside support of the Congress for its survival. In fact, the Front government will not last even for a day if the Congress withdraws support.

According to the common man's perception, the United Front government is fast heading towards collapse. During the formation of the United Front government, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) had played a significant role in bringing the coalition partners together and chalking out a common minimum programme, which was supposed to be the basis of the day-to-day functioning of the government. It is a common knowledge that the CPI-M has grown so fearful of the BJP's challenge that it willingly compromised its age-old policy commitments and ideological preferences just to keep the BJP out of power.

Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda has not only pushed the so-called common minimum programme into the cold storage for good but has also made it clear that he cannot consult his coalition partners on each and every issue and that he must take decisions in his capacity as the chief executive of the country. The utmost arrogance of the "humble farmer" can be gauged from the fact that he did not consider it fit to take into confidence even federal Home Minister Indrajit Gupta on vital issues such as reimposing President's rule in Uttar Pradesh. Also, the appointment of Romesh Bhandari as governor of Uttar Pradesh was made against the wishes and advice of the two communist parties.

The CPI-M's hope that the common minimum programme would be the panacea of all the ills and problems of the Indian masses have been totally belied by the Deve Gowda government in which people like C M Ibrahim, with a dubious background, are preferred to men of proven sincerity and integrity such as Indrajit Gupta and Chaturanan Mishra. The prime minister himself seems to be more interested in sheer politicking rather than making any sincere efforts to give a good governance to the country. The promise of enacting a law reserving 33 per cent seats in Parliament for women and creating a separate Uttarakhand state, and then cunningly backtracking on both the issues are glaring examples of the Deve Gowda brand of politics.

Moreover, during the past seven months, people's sufferings have increased due to unemployment and inflation, causing a steep rise in the prices of essential commodities. Since the advent of the Green Revolution in the mid-1970s, India could always rely on its food surplus, but now, thanks to the inefficient present government, we have to import wheat in spite of a good monsoon. Similarly, industrial growth has not only considerably declined, but according to the captains of industry, the country is on the verge of a recession.

When the United Front government was formed, Deve Gowda and his supporters had promised a time-bound programme for the supply of drinking water, poverty alleviation, health care, and housing for the people. But no one knows as to when these populist promises will be implemented. Wherever the prime minister goes, he makes announcements involving millions of rupees for the development of the region. But most of the projects that have actually taken off are restricted to Karnataka and, more particularly, to Hassan, Deve Gowda's home town.

It is due to the general conduct and performance of the Deve Gowda government that the CPI-M, which refused to join the government, has now started distancing itself from the United Front. Its leadership is now criticising not only the economic policies of the government, which are by and large dictated by the IMF/World Bank, but is also concerned with the lack of transparency and accountability on the part of the government.

Even under such circumstances, those who feel that there is no alternative to a full term for the government because no party or MP wants another election are sadly mistaken. The BJP leaders want a mid-term poll at which they can easily exploit the crying failures of the present government to their electoral advantage. But for the severe jolt that the BJP suffered in Gujarat at the hands of its one time 'disciplined soldier' Shankarsinh Waghela, followed by its electoral reverses in Uttar Pradesh, the party by now would have forced the central government to announce fresh general elections.

As far as the Congress is concerned, it stands thoroughly discredited and disunited. It will not opt for a midterm poll unless it feels sure of defeating the BJP and regaining its pre-eminence in Indian politics. At the same time it cannot support the United Front for five years which will only mean its own liquidation in due course. If the new Congress president, Sitaram Kesri, is successful in grabbing the leadership of the Congress Parliamentary Party as well, he will lose no time in disowning his party's present obligation to the United Front. Once he is able to set the Congress Bhavan in order, with or without the support of Sonia Gandhi, he will have little qualms in booting out the combination of 13 disparate parties which is stumbling from one crisis to other.

After consolidating his position within the party, the wily politician from Bihar may not face much difficult in roping in G K Moopanar's Tamil Manilla Congress and the ruling Telugu Desam faction led by Chandrababu Naidu to join a new coalition government at the Centre with the Congress replacing the Janata Dal. Both Moopanar and Naidu must not have forgotten nor forgiven the humiliation they had to suffer at the hands of Janata Dal leaders before and during the general elections. The Congress can also find another powerful ally in Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav who has already expressed his disillusionment with the United Front led by H D Deve Gowda.