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FinMin hopeful of over 8.1% growth

March 31, 2004 17:56 IST

Buoyed by the robust double-digit growth of third quarter of this year, the finance ministry on Wednesday said it will not be surprised if the economy grew over 8.1 per cent for 2003-04.

"I will not be surprised if it crosses 8.1 per cent as projected by the advance estimate of Central Statistical Organisation for 2003-04," Chief Economic Advisor Ashok Lahiri told reporters.

He also said the double-digit growth envisaged in the BJP's Vision Document in the coming years was "within the realms of possibility."

India had posted over 8.0 per cent annual growth twice in the past. In 1975-76, the economy recorded 9.0 per cent, while in 1988-89 it registered 10.5 per cent.

With buoyant industry and agriculture, India's GDP grew by 10.4 per cent during October-December, pushing up the average growth so far this year to over 8.1 per cent.

Even if the economy grew by 9.0 per cent in the last quarter of this year, the annual growth will be higher than the advance estimate of 8.1 per cent for this year, Lahiri said.

Usually, the growth is higher during the third and fourth quarters as compared to first and second quarters since kharif production would get fully reflected in the national accounts.

Lahiri said key to high growth was buoyant agriculture driven by high kharif production and that of rice and pulses.

He dismissed the criticisms that the GDP figures might be exaggerated, saying: "I have no reason to believe that the CSO figures are manipulated."

"Such allegations are very serious and they cannot be made lightly," Lahiri said, adding if there were any doubts about the methodology or figures, they (critics) should substantiate, instead of levelling vague charges.


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