The finance ministry has projected total revenue to grow by 10.6 per cent to Rs 2,90,882 crore (Rs 2,908.82 billion) in the next fiscal year from Rs 2,63,027 crore (Rs 2,630.27 billion), despite a lower mobilisation of non tax revenue.

For last fiscal the ministry had projected a rise of 7.2 per cent in total revenue estimates at Rs 16,999 crore (Rs 169.99 billion).

The ministry's optimism is based on a massive 63 per cent rise in service tax kitty to Rs 13,500 crore (Rs 135 billion) from Rs 8,300 crore (Rs 83 billion) revised estimate in this fiscal.

Revenue secretary Vineeta Rai said given the huge 50 per cent contribution of service to the GDP, the projected rise was not exorbitant. She also indicated that several more services will be tapped in the next budget for the target to be realised.

The ministry has also acknowledged that the contribution from non tax revenue are set to decline. It has projected a halving of the dividend from RBI and the banks and FIs at Rs 5,896.56 crore (Rs 58.96 billion) in 2004-05, from the revised estimate of Rs 11,239. 66 crore (Rs 112.40 billion)

The dividend from public sector enterprises is also expected to go down to Rs 9,478.57 crore (Rs 94.78 billion) from Rs 10,841.18 crore (Rs 108.41 billion) in the revised estimates for this fiscal. As a result total non tax revenue will slip to Rs 70,750 crore (Rs 707.50 billion) from Rs 75,488 crore (Rs 754.88 billion).

In this fiscal, non tax revenue has been bolstered by the huge interim dividend of Rs 2,500 crore (Rs 25 billion), and another Rs 208 crore (Rs 2.08 billion) from unified licence to push the total kitty to Rs 75,488 crore (Rs 754.88 billion), which is Rs 5,722 crore (Rs 57.22 billion) more than the budget estimate of Rs 69,766 crore (Rs 697.66 billion).

On the tax front, the ministry feels that excise will be the other star performer in the next fiscal. Even though excise revenue has fallen short of budget target by Rs 4,412 crore (Rs 44.12 billion), reaching only 95.44 per cent of the target, for 2004-05, the excise duty is expected to shoot up by Rs 14,820 crore (Rs 148.20 billion) or 16 per cent.

Ministry officials said the five items on which there has been a duty cut are expected to lead the rally. They said the shift in the fuel pattern to CNG from petrol has affected excise collections sharply.

Customs duty, in spite of being reduced by 5 per cent by Finance Minister Jaswant Singh, will also rise by almost eight per cent to Rs 53,000 crore (Rs 530 billion). Officials said the impact of the reduction has already been factored in the interim budget.

Corporate tax is set to exceed the budget target for this fiscal by Rs 11,487 crore (Rs 114.87 billion), but income tax will fall short of by Rs 3,801 crore (Rs 38.01 billion).

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