Steel majors Tata Steel, Essar Steel, Jindal, Iron & Steel, Jindal Vijaynagar Steel and Ispat Industries say that they expect domestic steel prices to soar in the coming months, in line with the expected firming up of global prices through the next quarter, even as the government said that there would be no tinkering with the import duty on steel products before the next budget.

"At present, there is no speculation on a cut in the import duty on steel," steel secretary V Duggal said.

Prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) and galvanised products are expected to  rise by at least 10-15 per cent to $350 a tonne by January 2004, while  cold-rolled steel prices are expected to rise $25-20 per tonne.

Sajjan Jindal, chairman and managing director of Jisco, said "At the moment world metal prices are increasing. So I feel that there will be an upward trend in the prices of HRC in the January-March (2004) quarter. Prices may improve by $20-$30 from the current level to stand at around $350 per  tonne."

"Prices of hot-rolled coils might see a rise of around $20-$30 in the next  quarter itself," said R C Nandrajog, vice president, finance, Tata Steel.

Any rise in international prices will get reflected in domestic prices in 1-2 months, industry sources said.

"If the present trend is any indication, prices are expected to remain firm," added Prashant Ruia, director, Essar Steel. Domestic steel prices  have been hiked six times since April 2002.

The prices of galvanised products are also set to go up by $25-$30 per tonne by year-end.

"With prices of metal and HRC rising, prices of the value-added galvanised steel and other cold rolled products will firm up as well," said Raman Madhok, joint managing director, Jisco.

A sharp rise in input costs due to an impending shortage in key inputs will  fuel the surge in prices, says a leading global steel information service, World Steel Dynamics in a recent report, which predicts that HRC prices will jump by $135 from the current range of $315 to around $450 per tonne by January 2004.

Indian steel companies, however, maintain that a price target of $350-370 per tonne is more realistic.

While scrap prices have risen to $185 per tonne, up $40 from $148 in May 2003, the price of coke is expected to increase by $25 per tonne from the current $120 per tonne to $145 per tonne by January, according to industry sources.

Strength in metal

• At present, there is no speculation on a cut in the import duty on steel," steel secretary V Duggal says.
• Prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) and galvanised products are expected to  rise by at least 10-15 per cent to $350 a tonne by January 2004, while cold-rolled steel prices are expected to rise $25-20 per tonne.
• With world metal prices increasing, an upward trend in the prices of HRC in the January-March (2004) quarter seen.