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GDP can grow by 7-8%: Lahiri
October 08, 2003 17:37 IST
Enthused by a good monsoon, the government on Wednesday said the economy would grow by over 6.0 per cent and could even log near 8.0 per cent growth while fiscal deficit could be reined in at below the targeted 5.6 per cent of GDP.
"Former RBI Governor (Bimal Jalan) had forecast GDP growth significantly over 6.0 per cent. I repeat, it will be over 6.0 per cent. With good monsoon, I will not be surprised if it is pushed beyond 7.0 per cent and even touch 8.0 per cent," chief economic advisor, Ashok Lahiri, told reporters.
In the first quarter, the Central Statistical Organisation estimated a GDP growth of 5.7 per cent without factoring the monsoon.
With a good monsoon, the kharif crop was buoyant and rabi is also expected to do well, going by the meteorological department's forecast of a prolonged winter.
"If we have a bumper harvest, it is imminently possible that we are moving towards more than 7.0 per cent growth," Lahiri said.
Commenting on Centre's fiscal position, Lahiri said the government was "very optimistic" on direct tax collection while indirect tax mop up would be on target.
Direct tax collection was at Rs 33,440 crore (Rs 334.40 billion) in the first six months of this fiscal compared to Rs 29,750 crore (Rs 297.50 billion) in the same period last fiscal, budget secretary D Swarup said.
Gross collection was at Rs 50,900 crore (Rs 509 billion) till September this fiscal compared to Rs 41,600 crore (Rs 416 billion) in the year ago period.
Corporate tax collection was at Rs 19,002 crore (Rs 190.02 billion) during
April-September this fiscal compared to Rs 15,264 crore (Rs 152.64 billion) in the year ago, while Income-Tax mop up was at Rs 14,442 crore (Rs 144.42 billion) as against Rs 14,341 crore (Rs 143.41 billion) last fiscal.
Indirect tax collection was at Rs 60,172 crore (Rs 601.72 billion) till September, compared to Rs 58,044 crore (Rs 580.44 billion) in the year ago period.
"The revenues are picking up, especially since September, and would pick up in the second half," Lahiri said.
The government was also keeping expenditure under control after the introduction of the cash management system of various ministries, he said.