Colour television majors expect sales to fall by nearly 10 per cent in metros, which account for around 15-20 per cent of industry sales, if conditional access system comes into effect from July 14.

CTV sales over the last few years have been primarily driven by homes opting for a second television set. But CAS will force families to abandon such purchases given the cost of set-tops and the complexity of the system.

N Chandramouli, vice-president (sales and marketing), Mirc Electronics says, "At present, the market has not been disturbed much as a majority of consumers are unaware of the whole issue of CAS. Pressure on sales will, however, be felt more when CAS is implemented and it could fall by as much as 10 per cent."

K S Raman, managing director of Sundarsons Electronics and a former president of Consumer Electronics & Television Manufacturers Association, explains, "There is still a lot of confusion on CAS and availability of set-top boxes. The increasing tendency of buying second television sets in metros and big cities will take a hit because of CAS. For example, a consumer will have to spend Rs 6,000 for a second colour television set and incur another Rs 3,000 or Rs 6,000 for a set-top box."

"Consumers are following a wait-and-watch policy," a Mumbai-based retailer said.

The trend of buying second sets started with the advent of satellite television given the plethora of channels addressing different age groups within a family.

In fact, riding on the back of the Cricket World Cup fever, the industry had witnessed sales of 7 million sets for 2002-03 from 5 million sets.

CAS is initially being introduced in metros, which constitute 6.4 million households of the 40 million cable homes in India.