Balaji Telefilms found its popularity graph waning today as investors reckoned that the company's growth momentum was losing pace.

That reckoning was based on the recent results for the last quarter and year. As a result, the scrip of the TV content maker dropped 3.10% to Rs 54.65. It had reached an early high of Rs 58.60 today. Close to a lakh shares were registered as volumes on BSE by 10:15 IST.

For Q4 ended 31 March 2003, Balaji Telefilms (BTL) recorded a 34% rise in net profit to Rs 11.96 crore compared to Rs 8.93 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. Net sales increased by 35.7% to Rs 44.53 crore from Rs 32.82 crore in MQ 2003.

But capitalmarket.com (based on a poll of three media analysts)'s expectations for the company were higher- a net profit of Rs 15-16 crore (68% to 80% growth) and net sales of Rs 48-52.5 crore, a rise of 45% to 60%.

For FY 2002-03, the company posted a massive 98% rise in net profit to Rs 57.41 crore (Rs 29.01 crore) on a 66% increase in total income to Rs 187.45 crore (Rs 113.10 crore). The board of directors have also recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.50 per share (face value Rs 2), for the year ended 31 March 2003.

The results, in any case,  have surpassed the company's own guidance - a 60% rise in total income and a 95% growth in net profit for FY 2002-03.

Analysts feel the real immediate concern for the company is its performance in the current financial year, as it is expected to record a fall or a flat growth . The fact that the company's family soaps 'Kahaani Ghar Ghar Ki' and 'Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi' have reached saturation level on the popularity charts and a few of its notable serials have moved off air, is reason for anxiety. Of late, the television rating points (TRPs) for many BTL serials have been on the decline.

Analysts say that BTL's decision to focus on TRP-linked commissioned programmes as against sponsored programmes is a cause for concern. The risk with commissioned programmes is that the company's margins may come under pressure if the serials are taken off the air for one reason or the other. Also, production of serials or programmes under the commissioned category is costlier, they added.

Earlier, there were reports that Sony Entertainment Television had decided to take the company's serial 'Kahani Terri Merri' off the air due to its poor performance. Already, the company's serials are facing a tough time due to severe competition from UTV and Contilogue.

Analysts said there is a gradual shift in television programming. For the past two years, TV producers were only looking at 'soaps' for rapid success. But, now they are also looking at comedies, game shows, action serials and detective serials. If BTL has to cope up with the competition, the company should come up with new programmes with high popularity levels.

As on 31 March 2003, the promoters' holding in BTL stood at 57.8%, while that of the public was at 6.05% and institutions (including foreign as well as domestic) at 29.57%.